NFL free agency analysis: Sam Darnold higher ceiling, far more risk than Geno Smith

It was a busy offseason for the Seattle Seahawks, but not a great one. At least according to Pro Football Network who released their grades for every team's work in NFL free agency. The analytic website gave them a D+, while saying their decision to sign DeMarcus Lawrence was puzzling, and asking Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be the No. 1 wide receiver is a big step."

Their biggest move, however, was signing Sam Darnold to a three-year deal. Darnold will replace Geno Smith, who was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and PFN says this could wind up being an upgrade. They also said that Darnold has far more risk.

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"Seattle Seahawks fans are likely to be nervous about what they have seen during the first portion of this offseason. Sam Darnold is technically a slight upgrade on Geno Smith in terms of QB+ from last season, having ranked 12th compared to 15th for Smith. However, Darnold comes with a lot more risk than Smith, and that is scary, but he also comes with a higher ceiling if they put the right pieces around him." — PFN

It's safe to say the fate of their season will rest on Darnold's shoulders.

Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold drops back to pass against the Rams during the second half in an NFC wild card game | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold had a breakout season in 2024 with the Minnesota Vikings. They elected to stick with J.J. McCarthy, who was injured last year, leaving Darnold for Seattle to sign.

Seattle is also turning to Klint Kubiak as their new offensive coordinator, and he runs a system similar to the one Darnold operated in Minnesota. That should help him find success, but as PFN stated, he's not a sure thing and will need plenty of help around him.

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