Predicting the Texans’ Offensive Stats in Week 1 vs. Bills

The clock is ticking before the Houston Texans are officially back on the field for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season, as they'll be up against the Buffalo Bills on their home field in Reliant Stadium for their opener come Sunday afternoon.

And a noteworthy storyline of the Texans' first game of the year will be how their offense inevitably pans out.

It's a group that's seen several adjustments throughout the Texans' offseason in hopes that 2026 can be a more productive year on that side of the ball. They'll have their first chance to prove they've made strides forward this weekend and start the new season off on a good note at 1-0.

Let's go through some predictions about how the Texans' offense could pan out in Week 1 against Buffalo, determining how their passing, rushing, and receiving stats might look by the end of the day:

Passing

Aug 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) warms up before playing agains t the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

QB C.J. Stroud: 18/28, 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 SKs

It feels like many will be looking for Stroud to enter this game with a ton of poise to go out and attack this Buffalo defense. This year is as big as it gets for the Texans quarterback, between the outside noise he's faced through the past several months, and beginning the year with a bang would get this offense started off on the right foot for the season ahead.

But in the first week of the regular season, it's oftentimes the offense that proves to be a bit slow to start for most teams, while the defense starts off firing on all cylinders.

Just last year, the Texans' season opener against the LA Rams had 23 total points scored on both sides. So perhaps a more modest showing from Stroud like this one could end up as the end result, even against an average-level defense like the Bills'.

A day like this wouldn't be the worst for Stroud, but he'd certainly have room for growth moving forward into the year. If two sacks also ended up as the final total for this offense, that's also not too bad of a showing for this new-look offensive line either.

Rushing

Aug 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Woody Marks (4) rushes for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

RB David Montgomery: 14 attempts, 63 yards, 1 TD

RB Woody Marks: 9 attempts, 34 yards

QB C.J. Stroud: 3 attempts, 12 yards

How the carries are split within this backfield will be an interesting storyline to watch unfold in the Texans' season opener. However, based on the strong praise we've heard surrounding both Montgomery and Marks throughout this offseason, a bit of a 60-40 split feels well within the range of outcomes on Sunday.

Montgomery feels primed to be the one getting the goal line work as well. So if the Texans are right on the cusp of the end zone, expect him to be the one getting his number called, especially against a Buffalo run defense that ranked bottom five in the NFL last year for rushing yards and yards per carry allowed.

Receiving

Aug 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) catches a pass before playing against the Las Vegas Raiders at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

WR Nico Collins: 7 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD

TE Dalton Schultz: 3 receptions, 26 yards

WR Kayshon Boutte: 2 receptions, 30 yards

WR Xavier Hutchinson: 2 receptions, 16 yards

RB Woody Marks: 2 receptions, 11 yards

TE Marlin Klein: 1 reception, 6 yards

WR Jaylin Noel: 1 reception, 5 yards

I'm expecting two results when it comes to the Texans' target distribution.

For one, the Texans are going to look towards Nico Collins' way as many times as they can. He's the best weapon in this offense by far, and can be an explosive, game-changing weapon downfield that feels like the best bet of anyone in this group to land a touchdown scorer to open the year.

Besides the extensive work for the Texans' top pass-catcher, Stroud might opt to spread out the targets within their offense majorly.

Dalton Schultz can't be forgotten as Houston's leader in receptions from 2025. Kayshon Boutte has reported immediate plans within this offense, and other offseason standouts like Marlin Klein and Jaylin Noel might see a target or two as well.

So even if the Texans' overall passing volume doesn't pan out to be too eye-catching, expect involvement from a variety of hands around this side of the ball.

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