Betting odds favor J.J. McCarthy to be Vikings' Week 1 QB in 2025

Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy? Until the Vikings make a decision on whether or not to bring back the former, the quarterback question is going to dominate their offseason news cycle.

For what it's worth, the betting odds seem to believe Darnold will be gone and McCarthy will be handed the reins this year. At BetOnline, a popular offshore sportsbook, McCarthy has -350 odds to be the Vikings' starting quarterback in Week 1 of next season. That's an implied probability of around 78 percent. Darnold is at +220 (31 percent) and "Other" is at +750 (12 percent).

BetOnline believes Darnold will be the Week 1 starter for someone next season, placing -500 odds on that happening. Considering he threw for 4,300 yards with 35 touchdown passes and a 102.5 rating this year and made the Pro Bowl, that's unsurprising. It's hard to imagine Darnold returning to Minnesota or heading elsewhere and not being the immediate starter, barring injury.

If he is gone, where might he go? The book also has odds for Darnold's next team if it isn't the Vikings. The Giants lead the way at +400 there, followed by the Raiders at +550; the Steelers, Saints, and Seahawks at +600; and a return to the Jets at +700. The Colts, Titans, Browns, and Dolphins are also listed. Trying to predict where he might end up feels like a fool's errand.

It's a fascinating decision for the Vikings. Darnold was so good in 2024 — until he wasn't. How do they weigh his duds in the two biggest games of the season against the 16 games that happened up to that point? They could franchise tag him or look to re-sign him on a multi-year deal with team flexibility. They could also let him walk and turn things over to McCarthy, who turned 22 on Monday. The Michigan product is an unknown at the NFL level who is coming off a knee injury, but they're also extremely high on his potential — and rolling with the rookie contract QB would give them more money to spend elsewhere.

What the Vikings end up deciding feels like anyone's guess, but the McCarthy route seems to make more sense for a number of reasons, even if some insiders and analysts believe Darnold will be back.

Related: Vikings say J.J. McCarthy is 'right where we hoped he'd be' in recovery process

Stay up to date on all things Vikings by bookmarking Minnesota Vikings On SI, subscribing to our YouTube channel, and signing up to receive our free Vikings newsletter.