Supercomputer Predicts Premier League’s Top Five After Shock Man Utd Defeat

Monday’s action provided yet another twist in the race for Champions League qualification.

A shock result for Man Utd. | Ash Donelon/Manchester United/Getty Images

Another week, another batch of chaos to digest towards the top of the Premier League table.

Leaders Arsenal have invited Manchester City back into the title race but, behind them, the battle to qualify for the Champions League took a number of fascinating twists, beginning with Liverpool’s win over Fulham and culminating with Manchester United’s surprise slump at home to relegation-threatened Leeds United.

With just six games remaining and all teams involved in shaky form, predicting the race to finish in the top five looks almost impossible.

Thankfully, the cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring to predict which teams will sneak their way into next season’s Champions League.

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Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Qualification Race

Liverpool and Aston Villa are in the fight for Champions League qualification. | Steven Halliwell/MI News/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Arsenal need just one more point to be assured of their spot in next season’s Champions League—an outcome nobody is doubting as they continue to lead the way at the top of the standings. Mikel Arteta’s side are given a 100% chance of qualifying for Europe’s top competition, as are City behind them.

Once we drop down to third, however, the questions start to be asked.

Currently, Michael Carrick’s Man Utd sit third in the standings, but defeat to Leeds has harmed their standings and the supercomputer is not backing the Red Devils to hold on to their spot in the table.

Instead, it is Aston Villa who are expected to end the season in third. The Villans had a tough weekend, themselves, held to a 1–1 draw away at struggling Nottingham Forest to reignite concerns that were prominent before the international break.

• READ NEXT: Four Takeaways From Man Utd’s Home Defeat to Leeds

Villa are given a 94.98% chance of qualifying for the Champions League at this point, putting them clear of Man Utd who, despite their miserable defeat, are still expected to finish fourth with odds of 90.22% of booking their place in the competition.

Thanks to the performance of English clubs in Europe this season, the Premier League has earned an extra spot in the Champions League, which is good news for those teams trailing behind.

Liverpool were one of just two teams in the top eight to win this weekend. A morale-boosting 2–0 win over Fulham has given Arne Slot’s side a four-point cushion, and they are not expected to give that up. The Reds’ chances of qualifying sit at an encouraging 71.33%.

That is bad news for Chelsea, whose 3–0 tumble against Man City has slashed their odds of qualifying to just 19.73%. A spot in the Europa League is most likely for Liam Rosenior’s Blues, who need to start looking below them as teams start to close the gap.

Indeed, the predictions put just five points between Chelsea’s most-likely finish of sixth and the team down in 12th. Even Crystal Palace, who currently sit 14th, are given a 0.15% chance of flying up to the Champions League, proving how fine the margins are at this late stage of the season.

Position	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Chances of UCL Qualification
1.	Arsenal	70	82.10	100.00%
2.	Man City	64	76.57	100.00%
3.	Aston Villa	55	64.82	94.98%
4.	Man Utd	55	63.82	90.22%
5.	Liverpool	52	61.24	71.33%
6.	Chelsea	48	56.76	19.73%

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