NBA Eastern Conference Team Over/Under Betting Primer
The NBA offseason, which is typically chock full of drama, did not disappoint this summer.
Several stars switched teams, though not the most prominent one who shook the league when he asked out on the day free agency began. Coaches were hired and fired, teams added rookies in the draft and dozens of free agents left for greener pastures and bigger paydays or re-upped with their current teams.
All that to say, a lot has happened since the Warriors beat the Celtics in the Finals in June. It’s a lot to keep up with, and one way or another, each trade, signing, draft pick and suspension affects teams’ outlooks for the coming season.
Ahead of the season opener on Oct. 18, SI Sportsbook has over/under projections for the 2022-23 campaign, among other futures odds.
SI Betting broke down each team’s situation and picked over or under for each of the 30 NBA teams’ win totals. Here are the Eastern Conference teams.
You can read the Western Conference breakdown here.
Bet on NBA Over/Under Win Totals at SI Sportsbook
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Celtics: 55.5 — Over (+115) | Under (-152)
Miami’s 53 wins paced the East a season ago, so the expectations for the C’s are monumentally high. Boston’s 51 victories put them in a three-way tie for second-most in the conference, though that took a monumental second-half turnaround after the team entered the new year below .500. There’s an argument to be made that this team is better than the version that made the Finals, largely due to the addition of Malcolm Brogdon. But with Robert Williams III (knee) out for the start of the season and the year-long suspension of coach Ime Udoka looming over the team, the regular-season road might be a bit too rocky to deliver 56-plus wins.
BET: Under 55.5 wins (-152)
Milwaukee Bucks: 53.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-125)
The Bucks won 51 games (or the equivalent in the shortened 2020-21 season) four years in a row and finished with the league’s best record in back-to-back seasons (2018-19, 2019-20). Giannis Antetokounmpo won MVP both years the Bucks piled up the most wins and he might be coming for the award once again after a two-season hiatus. Though Khris Middleton (wrist) will miss the start of the season, he’ll return soon enough to make up a fearsome trio alongside Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday. Coach Mike Budenholzer’s teams have always taken the regular season seriously and a three-win improvement is certainly attainable.
BET: Over 53.5 wins (-110)
Brooklyn Nets: 51.5 — Over (-111) | Under (-118)
A dramatic offseason ended with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving staying put in Brooklyn. Coach Steve Nash and general manager Sean Marks still have their jobs, sharpshooter Joe Harris is back and Ben Simmons is set to finally return. There’s reason to believe in the Nets, just like last year when they entered the season as title favorites, though expectations have been tempered after an epic first-round flameout. If you look back to the 2020-21 campaign, Brooklyn won the equivalent of 54 games in the shortened season, the first year with Durant, Irving and Nash. It’s difficult to trust the Nets, but perhaps talent wins out this time.
BET: Over 51.5 wins (-111)
Philadelphia 76ers: 50.5 — Over (-125) | Under (-110)
Joel Embiid’s two MVP runner-up campaigns both ended with the 76ers finishing with the most (49 two seasons ago) or second-most (51 last year) wins in the East. You don’t have to squint your eyes to see Philadelphia near the top of the conference again this season. The front office plucked De’Anthony Melton from the Grizzlies, signed PJ Tucker away from the Heat, added Montrezl Harrell for some much-needed center depth behind Embiid and signed Danuel House Jr., yet another member of the late 2010s Rockets. James Harden will be more accustomed to playing alongside Embiid in his first full season with the team and the level of play Tyrese Maxey exhibited in the playoffs should scare opponets.
BET: Over 50.5 wins (-125)
Miami Heat: 49.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-118)
Miami is coming off a 53-win campaign, its most wins since LeBron James was still with the team, and is largely running it back with the same squad (minus Tucker). Eric Spoelstra has proven time and time again that he’s one of the NBA’s best coaches and Jimmy Butler can go toe-to-toe with virtually anyone, but this team will be hard-pressed to repeat its 2021-22 success. The teams the Heat beat out for the best record in the conference all improved, while Kyle Lowry is a year older and showed signs of slowing down and Bam Adebayo has struggled to stay on the court. Miami remains one of the East’s top teams, but 50 wins is a tad high.
BET: Under 49.5 wins (-118)
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Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers: 46.5 — Over (-161) | Under (+125)
The Cavaliers were a top-six team in the East before a slew of injuries late in the year pushed them to the play-in. Cleveland has a dangerous big man duo in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, whom anchor its defense down low, as well as do-it-all point guard Darius Garland, who no longer has as much on his plate after Cleveland traded for Donvan Mitchell. This quickly went from a plucky young roster to one with legitimate playoff expectations over the summer with three All-Stars in the starting lineup, the Rookie of the Year runner-up and a capable bench, which includes Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. The Cavs compiled 44 wins last season and have their eyes set on improving on their best post-James campaign.
BET: Over 46.5 wins (-161)
Atlanta Hawks: 45.5 — Over (-125) | Under (+100)
The Hawks got Trae Young the backcourt partner of his career in the offseason by swinging a trade for Dejounte Murray. The first-time All-Star gives Atlanta a second creator and scorer and will allow Young to potentially play off the ball more than he has in the past. It also moves Bogdan Bogdanovic to the sixth-man role full time, where he’ll provide a spark off the bench. John Collins is still holding down the front court with Clint Capela, and defensive ace De’Andre Hunter showed his offensive chops in the postseason. The Hawks made the playoffs with 43 wins last season and the acquisition of Murray raises their ceiling and floor.
BET: Over 45.5 wins (-125)
Toronto Raptors: 45.5 — Over (-133) | Under (+100)
The Raptors kept their rangy, switchable core intact and will again enter the 2022-23 season with playoff aspirations. Toronto rebounded from a 27-win season to rip off 48 victories, largely thanks to the stellar play of Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes. Nick Nurse’s team was largely idle this summer with Otto Porter Jr. being the biggest addition. But last season’s run to the postseason showed Toronto already has a good thing going. Further development from Barnes and continued All-Star level play from Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet should have this team firmly in the top six in the East again with even more wins than last year.
BET: Over 45.5 wins (-133)
Chicago Bulls 44.5 — Over (+125) | Under (-161)
It’s fair to say that the Bulls, one of two teams to make the playoffs with a negative point differential, overperformed. Chicago won 46 games despite getting outscored on average by its opponents thanks to a terrible defense. (The Pelicans were the only other postseason team with a negative differential and they won 10 fewer games than the Bulls.) The most pressing offseason matter for the franchise was Zach Lavine’s future, which they addressed with a max contract. Beyond Lavine, DeMar DeRozan, coming off a career season, is getting older and Nikola Vucevic underperformed in his first season in the Windy City. The first-round gentleman’s sweep against the division rival Bucks, combined with the news of Lonzo Ball’s knee injury, are signs this team is trending downward.
BET: Under 44.5 wins (-161)
New York Knicks: 38.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-125)
The Knicks brought Jalen Brunson to the Big Apple. So what now? The city soured on Julius Randle last season as he and the Knicks regressed from their 2021 playoff appearance and won just 37 games. Coach Tom Thibodeau authored a stout defense but not one good enough to make up for an anemic offense. The duo of Brunson and RJ Barrett, who looks like a budding star, is tantalizing, but the Knicks aren’t good enough to make another playoff push and simultaneously are too good to bottom out and take another swipe at a top pick. Limbo is a bad place to be for an NBA team, and it appears that where New York is.
BET: Under 38.5 wins (-125)
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Charlotte Hornets: 37.5 — Over (+110) | Under (-143)
The Hornets’ scorching offense was essentially negated by one of the NBA’s worst defenses. Over the summer, Charlotte didn’t do much to address its deficiency, brought back head coach Steve Clifford, who was fired by the team in 2018, and might have lost one if its best players. Miles Bridges’ preliminary court hearing for felony charges of injuring a child’s parent and child abuse was delayed yet again last week and his NBA future remains unclear. Charlotte has Gordon Hayward’s return to look forward to and any offense led by LaMelo Ball will still put up points in bunches, but this team, coming off a 43-win season, is likely headed back to the lottery after consecutive play-in blowouts.
BET: Under 37.5 wins (-143)
Washington Wizards: 35.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
The Wizards were a mess last year. Bradley Beal played less than half of the season— and some of his worst basketball in quite some time when he was available—and midseason acquisition Kristaps Porzingis played just 17 games in the nation’s capital. Washington, which signed Beal to an enormous contract in the offseason, now has new pieces to surround Beal, Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. The Wizards’ reward for winning just 35 games was the 10th pick, which they used to draft Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis, and they swapped Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith for Monte Morris and Will Barton, two prospective starters. A full season of Beal and Porzingis should push Washington close to 40 wins.
BET: Over 35.5 wins (-110)
Detroit Pistons: 28.5 — Over (-150) | Under (+110)
Detroit is home to one of the NBA’s most exciting, young backcourts. Rookie Jaden Ivey, picked fourth out of Purdue, joins Cade Cunningham in the Motor City after the No. 1 pick impressed in his first season. The Pistons also added center Jalen Duren, another lottery pick, on draft night and traded for Bojan Bogdanovic, a veteran shooter with playoff experience—not that this team is necessarily close to contending. Detroit won 23 games last year with one of the worst offenses in the league the main culprit, not that its defense was lights out either. Head coach Dwane Casey is still figuring out what he has with this team.
BET: Under 28.5 wins (+110)
Orlando Magic: 26.5 — Over (-133) | Under (+100)
The Magic added No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero out of Duke to a talented young team. Orlando’s entire starting five was selected in the top half of the first round over the last five years, including 2021 top-10 picks Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner. This accumulation of former lottery picks has not translated to wins, though, as the franchise has 43 combined victories over the last two seasons. The Magic, with one of the NBA’s worst offenses and a middling defense, are not getting out of the low-20 win range this year despite the obvious upgrade Banchero brings.
BET: Under 26.5 wins (+100)
Indiana Pacers: 23.5 — Over (-120) | Under (-120)
Maybe this is the year the Pacers go full tank and cash in their trade chips: Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. Even if they don’t, Rick Carlisle’s first season in the Hoosier State was not some great success. Indiana won just 25 games,its fewest since the mid-1980s. The team has a promising backcourt in place with Tyrese Haliburton running the offense and first-round pick Benedict Mathurin will slot in at shooting guard. Still, the Pacers were a turnstile on defense last season and there’s little hope of that improving with this roster as currently constructed.
BET: Under 23.5 wins (-120)
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