UFC Rio Rancho Preview: Which Fighters Should You Bet On?

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Feb 15, 2020

What’s up fight crew! Well, thankfully we are out of Texas this week after that spectacle of judging we got to experience last weekend! This week, we head on over to Rio Rancho, New Mexico for UFC on ESPN+ 25: Anderson vs Blachowicz 2.

The main event here could quite possibly determine who in fact is Jon Jones’ next challenger, after he edged out a razor close decision against the very game Dominick Reyes. It ended up being a pretty big statement for Reyes, as many actually had him winning the fight before the judges' decision was read. Speaking of statements, both Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz will be looking to make a statement of their own Saturday night, and with a win from either, expect some mic work lobbying for that next crack at the Light Heavyweight strap.

Let’s jump into this card we have on deck Saturday night!

SATURDAY 02/15/20 at 5 P.M. ET
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: Santa Ana Star Center
LOCATION: Rio Rancho, New Mexico
MATCHES: 13

MAIN CARD:

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205LBS

#5 COREY ANDERSON 13-4 (-210) VS #6 JAN BLACHOWICZ 25-8 (+175)

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

DIEGO SANCHEZ 29-12 (+140) VS MICHEL PEREIRA 23-10 (-160)

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125LBS

#12 MONTANA DE LA ROSA 10-5 (-165) VS #13 MARA ROMERO BORELLA 12-6 (+145)

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

BROK WEAVER 14-4 (-275) VS KAZULA VARGAS 11-3 (+235)

FLYWEIGHT 125LBS

#7 ROGERIO BONTORIN 16-1 (+130) VS RAY BORG 12-4 (-150)

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

LANDO VANNATA 10-4-2 (-120) VS YANCY MEDEIROS 15-6 (+100)

PRELIMS:

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

TIM MEANS 29-11-1 (-280) VS DANIEL RODRIGUEZ 10-1 (+240)

BANTAMWEIGHT 135LBS

#13 JOHN DODSON 20-11 (+135) VS NATHANIEL WOOD 16-3 (-145)

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

JIM MILLER 31-13 (+130) VS SCOTT HOLTZMAN 13-3 (-150)

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205LBS

DEVIN CLARK 10-4 (-380) VS DEQUAN TOWNSEND 21-10 (+315)

BANTAMWEIGHT 135LBS

#15 CASEY KENNEY 13-1-1 (+140) VS MERAB DVALISHVILI 9-4 (-160)

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT 135LBS

#12 MACY CHIASSON 5-1 (-800) VS SHANNA YOUNG 7-2 (+550)

FLYWEIGHT 125LBS

#13 MARK DE LA ROSA 11-3 (+195) VS #14 RAULIAN PAIVA 18-3 (-235)

So, who do the oddsmakers have with the edge Saturday? Let’s take a look. Below you will find the implied win probability chart stacking all 26 fighters amongst each other. This is solely based on odds, so don’t go full tilt and lose your bankroll on some crazy parlay.

MATCHUPS TO TARGET:

#5 COREY ANDERSON 13-4 (-210) VS #6 JAN BLACHOWICZ 25-8 (+175)

The main event brings us a rematch from their first fight more than four years ago, which resulted in Anderson cruising to a unanimous decision win fairly decisively. Anderson now enters this match coming off of four straight wins, and is looking to secure that title shot he’s been chasing for sometime.

The delay is his shot could have a little to do with his fighting style and how he’s only finished his opponents in 38% of his victories, including his wins against Ilir Latifi, Glover Teixeira and Patrick Cummins. Most recently, though, Anderson caught some eyes, as he finished prospect Johnny Walker in less than a round back at UFC 244 last November.

On the other side of the octagon Saturday night will stand Jan Blachowicz, who had four victories in a row until facing defeat against Thiago Santos. With that win, Santos got the shot against Jon Jones, only to lose a decision only after putting up a valiant effort. Santos fought most of the fight injured, tearing his ACL, MCL, PCL and Meniscus, yet still moved forward much of the fight.

Back to Blachowicz. Since losing to Santos, he’s back on track and has rebounded with wins against former middleweight champ Luke Rockhold and former Strikeforce champion “Jacare” Souza. If Jones doesn’t move up to heavyweight, or if they don’t run it back with Reyes, the winner of this one should slide into that next title shot.

So who wins?

In their first matchup, Anderson absolutely dominated Blachowicz, and had him doubled over by fight's end after Anderson threw 237 strikes and landed four takedowns, really taking the fight where he wanted across three rounds. I’d find it hard to believe that Jan hasn’t forgot about that beatdown. From a mental side of things, it's got to still weigh heavy on his mind coming into this one.

Now, like I mentioned, both guys are putting some solid wins together, but it's hard to look past the matchups they’ve had. Now both have locked up wins against some big names, but for the most part Blachowicz has been matched up against strikers. This will be much different. Anderson takes dudes to the mat. Couple with that the fact that Anderson can strike as well and set up some transitions and tire Blachowicz across the five rounds.

He has that puncher's chance, and Anderson has been KO’d, but those recent ones (if you call them recent) were against Jimi Manuwa (88% KO win rate), and Ovince Saint Preux, who landed a kick really nobody probably could have taken. Blachowicz has only 6 KO/TKO wins across 33 fights, and a few of those were due to kicks to the body. Blachowicz most likely will not be throwing kicks to the body here, as he will be avoiding those incoming takedowns instead. Take a look at this statistical comparison as well:

This is Anderson’s chance to really shine. With the five rounds to work, and knowing he most likely gets that crack at the title with a win, I see him doing more of what he did in their first matchup or even possibly breaking Blachowicz and earning a late finish.

Prediction: Cory Anderson

BROK WEAVER 14-4 (-275) VS KAZULA VARGAS 11-3 (+235)

Weaver is finally getting his debut fight here after wowing Dana and crew on the Contender Series last August. He’s matched up against Kazula Vargas, who didn’t look good at all against Alex Da Silva last August. Da Silva took him down when he wanted and exposed that 25% takedown defense across three rounds. Weaver will probably do much of the same and he will be the bigger of the two and has proven the ability to take the fight to the mat and control from the top in past fights.

Vargas fights out of Mexican Pride Gym, where he actually is the head coach. They have like six fighters representing, half of which have losing records. Not sure if he’s coming up with his own game plan or who will be walking with him to the octagon, but it doesn’t give me too much confidence in this spot. This has the feel of a set up fight for Weaver, who rolled up to the weigh in stare downs with an amazing head dress, reminding us of his Native American heritage, which will also have the crowd going in New Mexico. Regardless, Weaver is the bigger guy and will more than likely take this one where he wants, secure the win and follow it up with some great stuff on the mic post fight.

Prediction: Brok Weaver

#13 JOHN DODSON 20-11 (+135) VS NATHANIEL WOOD 16-3 (-145)

Nathaniel Wood is on the rise and he’s actually finished all three of his UFC opponents since getting the call. He’s well rounded and has finished 87% of his wins, predominately via KO/TKO, though he does have five submissions as well. He strikes at an above average pace and as some decent one-punch power. His three UFC finishes have come all by way of submission (all by chokes). He has some cardio to boot, but not John Dodson cardio, if that’s a thing.

Dodson is back after taking about a year off and is looking to get back on track here. He’s lost three of his last four, dropping his last two matches via decision. Dodson has been fighting guys all up in the rankings though, with his last four fights against guys ranked in the top five, and he’s held his own for the most part. Wood just hasn’t been fighting this level of fighter as of yet. It's a big step up for “the prospect” against Dodson.

Dodson fights with low output, and is all over the place in there. He has some very awkward yet fast in and out movement, typically throwing one or two shots and getting on his bike. Wood will look to combo but will probably be chasing this guy smiling back at him around at times.

Not only is Dodson fast, but he’s durable as well, like we saw against Petr Yan. When in danger, Dodson went in for some takedowns, and was able to land as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dodson do the same here at some point, looking to steal a round. Keep in mind, Dodson is a former state champion wrestler, and with this fight in New Mexico, he will have the crowd on his side.

I like the dog value here. Sprinkle some of that home town cooking like we saw for Derrick Lewis last weekend in Texas!

Prediction: John Dodson

QUICK PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCHUPS:

COREY ANDERSON defeats JAN BLACHOWICZ

DIEGO SANCHEZ defeats MICHEL PEREIRA

MONTANA DE LA ROSA defeats MARA ROMERO BORELLA

BROK WEAVER defeats KAZULA VARGAS

ROGERIO BONTORIN defeats RAY BORG

LANDO VANNATA defeats YANCY MEDEIROS

TIM MEANS defeats DANIEL RODRIGUEZ

JOHN DODSON defeats NATHANIEL WOOD

JIM MILLER defeats SCOTT HOLTZMAN

DEVIN CLARK defeats DEQUAN TOWNSEND

MERAB DVALISHVILI defeats CASEY KENNEY

MACY CHIASSON defeats SHANNA YOUNG

RAULIAN PAIVA defeats MARK DE LA ROSA

Fight card prediction recap: 117-61-6

DFS NOTES:

HOW MMA DFS SCORING WORKS:

Lineup Requirements: Lineups will consist of 6 Fighters.

In salary cap contests, participants will create a lineup by selecting players listed in the Player Pool. Each player listed has an assigned salary and a valid lineup must not exceed the salary cap of $50,000.

Contest results will be determined by the total points accumulated by each individual lineup entry.

SCORING

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control.
A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.

Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his or her way to an unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five-round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
Always look for value at the top of my MMA DFS Heat Chart. Using fight-odds data and stacking the fighter lineup via odds to finish in comparison to DFS salary price can find you some spots. RED = HOT, BLUE = COLD. The chart also provides finish percentages, which validate odds even more if the matchup and past opponents’ strengths support the provided stats.
Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates via the Heat Chart, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Rio Rancho. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on odds to finish the fight. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.