How Many TDs Will Denzel Mims Score in 2020?
A wave of talented wide receivers will make their NFL debuts this season. The 2020 NFL Draft was a perfect storm, as several teams needed help on offence and the wideout talent pool was deep. The end result was a record 13 wide receivers being selected during the first two rounds.
Denzel Mims pushed the number past 12 (set in 2014) when he went to the Jets as the 27th pick in the second round. FanDuel Sportsbook has Mims' 2020 touchdown total set at 5.5. Will he top that number?
Mims joins Justin Jefferson (Minnesota) and Jerry Jeudy (Denver) with 5.5 as their rookie season receiving TD total. FanDuel has UNDER (-160) as the favorite and OVER (+126) as the underdog. Fellow rookies Jalen Reagor (Philadelphia), Henry Ruggs III (Las Vegas) and CeeDee Lamb (Dallas) are one score back with 4.5 TD total odds. With live sports still a few months away–there are a variety of NFL rookie prop betting options to wager on.
Meet the Jets’ Newest Weapon: Denzel Mims
Mims was a three-sport star at Daingerfield High School in Texas. He received All-District honors in basketball (twice) and was the 2015 Class 3A 200-meter state champion in track. Mims played wide receiver and safety for the Tigers and was rated as a three-star high school recruit. He considered offers from Tulsa, Texas Tech, Texas State and Arkansas State prior to committing to Baylor in 2016. Mims had a quiet freshman season, catching just four passes for 24 yards.
Leading the Bears in receptions (61), receiving yards (1,087) and touchdowns (8), Mims gained national attention during his sophomore year. His numbers dipped to 946 yards, but he still caught eight touchdowns as a junior. Mims closed out his four-year career at Baylor with 1,020 receiving yards and 12 scores during his senior season. Impressing scouts, Mims posted a 4.38 time in the 40-yard dash, the third-fastest by a receiver at the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine.
New York Jets Offense
Grounded for years, the Jets offense has ranked 25th or worse during seven of the last 10 seasons. New York may have hit rock bottom in 2019, as the Jets were last overall in total yards gained (273 YPG), second-to-last in points scored (17.2 PPG) and bottom four with 194.4 pass yards per game. The offensive line shoulders some of the blame, as they allowed 52 sacks and failed to open holes for a Jets ground game that averaged a meager 78.6 rushing yards per game.
New York addressed its offensive line issues by selecting tackle Mekhi Becton with the No. 11 pick in the first round and by signing several free agents. The Jets are hopeful that will help Darnold see fewer ghosts this season. Jamison Crowder led New York with 883 receiving yards and six touchdowns last year and he projects as the Jets’ WR1 heading into the 2020 season. After Robby Anderson signed with Carolina, the role of WR2 is undetermined.
Breshad Perriman signed as a free agent and will be Mims’ primary competition for the WR2 role. Perriman stepped in successfully for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans suffered season-ending injuries. He was outstanding down the stretch, posting 349 yards with four TD during the Buccaneers’ final three games. Ryan Griffin will compete with Chris Herndon for the top tight end role. Le’Veon Bell will be the Jets’ lead running back with Frank Gore playing a small role as well.
Related NFL Rookie Prop Betting Options
FanDuel set Mims’ receiving total at 684.5 yards, which is the lowest total of any of the five rookies currently on the board. I like OVER on that prop as Mims projects as a WR3 at minimum and the Jets are heading in the right direction on offense.
Bottom Line: The NFL has released the full 2020 schedule and the Jets don’t have very many soft spots on their slate. New York will face eight teams that ranked in the top 12 pass defense last season, including New England and Buffalo twice. Mims has a good chance to do some damage late in the season when the Jets play Miami (twice), Seattle and Las Vegas, as they ranked 25th or worse on pass defense last year. It will be close, but I like UNDER on this prop.
The Play: UNDER 5.5 touchdowns (-160)
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