MLB National League MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year Odds
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It’s time to check in on the NL awards futures market. We’re halfway through the season, and a lot can happen down the stretch. Let’s see if we can find some value.
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Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
2022 National League MVP Odds
Paul Goldschmidt +120
Manny Machado +500
Mookie Betts +900
Freddie Freeman +900
Austin Riley +1100
Pete Alonso +1100
Trea Turner +1300
Nolan Arenado +2500
Juan Soto +3500
Kyle Schwarber +4000
Dansby Swanson +4000
Ronald Acuna Jr. +5000
Paul Goldschmidt leads the field at +120 odds after opening the season at +5000 odds. If you were smart enough to pull that ticket, I salute you.
I am going to pass on these current odds simply because there is too much of the season left but Goldy is certainly deserving of this award if the season ended today. Goldschmidt is slashing .330/.414/.590 with twenty homers and a 12% walk rate.
Manny Machado’s fWAR (4.4) is third in the NL behind Nolan Arenado (4.6) and Goldschmidt (4.5). Machado is hitting .303 with 15 home runs, and Machado could certainly take this one home if the Padres turn on the jets after the All Star Break.
Arenado (+2500) is another longer shot I like, with the best WAR among the field, 18 homers and a .293 average. You’ll notice a theme in this article: the Cardinals.
Pete Alonso can’t be ignored at +1100. The Polar Bear plays for a Mets team with the second-best NL record heading into the All-Star break, and he is a big reason why. Alonso has never hit for average, but his .265 this season is the best of his career. Add 24 homers and 78 RBIs before the break, and you can see a pathway to the NL MVP.
Austin Riley and Kyle Schwarber also present decent value, and they have been hot of late. Riley has 27 homers going into the All-Star break while also batting .285. Schwarber has 29 homers but is batting only .208.
Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
2022 National League Cy Young Odds
Sandy Alcantara -125
Corbin Burnes +500
Joe Musgrove +1200
Max Fried +1200
Zack Wheeler +1600
Carlos Rodon +1600
Max Scherzer +2000
Sandy Alcantara doesn’t get it done by tallying a lot of strikeouts. He does it by pitching smartly. The Miami pitcher has a four-pitch mix that keeps the hitter guessing, and he owns a 1.76 ERA. Alcantara induces a 56.4% ground ball rate and is allowing a mere 0.39 home runs per nine innings. His 4.0 fWAR leads the field by a large margin.
He’s the favorite for a reason heading into the second half.
Corbin Burnes is looking to repeat, and his 2.12 ERA paired with a strikeout rate of more than 11 batters per nine innings makes him a good value at +500 odds.
Joe Musgrove (+1200) is the only other player I would wager on heading into the second half. Musgrove owns a 2.42 ERA this season.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
2022 National League Rookie of the Year Odds
Spencer Strider +150
Michael Harris +225
Oneil Cruz +700
Seiya Suzuki +1000
Nolan Gorman +1200
MacKenzie Gore +1500
Juan Yepez +1700
Spencer Strider leads the field at +150 odds and he has impressed lately. Before he struggled in his final star before the break and lasted only four innings, Strider allowed one earned run or fewer while striking out 38 across 23 2/3 spanning four starts. That’s impressive … but the concern is how he will be managed down the stretch. Strider started the season in the bullpen and if the Braves limit his innings in the second half, there’s certainly a chance for another contender to swoop in.
Teammate Michael Harris has also had a very strong debut for the Braves, hitting .283 with eight homers and 26 RBIs in across 48 games.
Oneil Cruz is a Statcast darling, but it would be hard for him to make up enough ground after batting .204 through 26 games.
MacKenzie Gore was an early favorite but he has struggled of late. If you still believe in the Padres’ lefty, +1200 odds is a good value.
My sleeper pick is Nolan Gorman. Sure, he’s struggled of late, but he has shown his ability to be clutch for the Cardinals. Gorman is hitting .241 with nine homers.
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