NFL Player Props: Travis Kelce Receptions, Yards, Touchdowns Bets Breakdown

Breaking down Travis Kelce’s receptions, yards and touchdowns prop bets.

Author:
Shawn Childs
Publish date:
Aug 31, 2022

In this story:

A lot is working against Travis Kelce in his 10th season with the Chiefs. He’ll turn 33 in October while gaining more than 1,000 yards in his previous six years (85/1,115/4, 83/1,038/8, 103/1,336/10, 97/1,229/5, 105/1,416/11, and 92/1,125/9).

Kansas City no longer has an elite WR1 with Tyreek Hill now in Miami, pointing to Kelce tighter coverage and less space to make plays. The key to repeating is the Chiefs’ wide receiving corps keeping defenses honest.

Here’s a look at his 2022 prop bets.

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Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, right, runs with the ball as Washington Commanders linebacker Cole Holcomb defends during the first half of an NFL preseason football game Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022, in Kansas City, Mo. — Ed Zurga/AP

Receptions: 90.5

Over the past four seasons, Kelce averaged 99 catches for 1,277 yards and nine touchdowns on 141 targets. Kansas City passed 675 times in 2022, much higher than in 2020 (630) and 2019 (576). His receptions over/under (90.5) was about 8.5% lower than his recent resume but only 1.5 fewer than his 2021 catch total (92).

AFC West Over/Under Wins Total: KC | LV | LAC | DEN | Division Odds

The Chiefs have a great quarterback with a top coaching staff that wants to throw the ball. I have him projected to catch 96 passes for 1,165 yards and nine touchdowns. The 17th game on the NFL schedule is a plus for Kelce, and he missed only three games over the previous eight seasons. The data suggests the over is the play, but father time will have something to say about his chances in 2022.

Bet: Over 90.5 catches

Receiving Yards: 1,000.5

Kelce rarely misses games and he finished with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last six seasons, so he looks like an easy win in this prop bet.

The tight end averages 12.8 yards per catch, meaning he projects to need just 78 receptions to gain 1,001 yards this season. In addition, Kelce would have a higher output if he played 17 games since sis catch rate (70.3%) commands chances.

Kelce averaged almost nine targets a game over his previous 63 starts. If given a choice, I like his over in yards more than his prop in catches due to the expected wiggle room to reach a winning total.

Bet: Over 1,000.5 yards

Aug 20, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) goes in motion behind the line against the Washington Commanders during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. — Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Receiving touchdowns: 9.5

Kelce has 35 touchdowns over 57 games with Patrick Mahomes. His success converted to 17 starts would come to 10.4 scores.

Based on his expected total in touchdowns (9.5), he finished with a winning bet twice over the past four years. On the downside, he beat his scoring prop by 0.5 and 1.5 scores in his winning years.

Defenses will focus on Kelce in the red zone and the goal line, pointing to fewer touchdowns. If Kelce misses any time, his expectations to reach 10 scores will diminish significantly.