Cubs Catch Small Break On the Mound in Tough Series Against Braves

The Chicago Cubs have entered crunch time.

Only 12 games stand between the organization and another trip to the postseason. As of now, Fangraphs gives them a 98.9 percent chance to play in October, but where those games will take place remains a major question.

The Cubs have watched their Wild Card slip away in dramatic fashion. While they previously had a stronghold in hosting the series at Wrigley Field, the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies have closed the gap. The Milwaukee Brewers also continued to be a thorn in the Cubs' side, handing them five losses in their last nine games.

As things currently stand, the Cubs and Phillies are tied for the No. 1 Wild Card spot and thus the right to host the three-game set. The good news is the Cubs do hold the tiebreaker thanks to their regular season series win over Philly. This means that if the season ended today, Wrigley Field would still play host to the Wild Card round.

With that said, there is a very real world where the Cubs slide into the No. 2 spot again in a matter of hours. They will welcome the 88-win Atlanta Braves into the Friendly Confines to begin the week. It represents a far tougher task than their Wild Card competition, who will get to face off against the 70-win Washington Nationals over the next several days. Not great!

There is a silver lining for Craig Counsell, though. While he may be faced with a significantly tougher task, the Braves' pitching schedule fell in the Cubs' favor. Does it guarantee a series win? Of course not, but it should give Chicago that much more confidence heading into one of the most important weeks of the year.

Cubs Will Miss Atlanta's Best Starters

Sep 11, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale (51) throws against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As the Chicago Cubs head into their series on Monday night, they should be feeling pretty good about their pitching matchups. The Braves' probables for the next three games are absent their top arms, including Tyler Mahle (3.91 ERA), Grant Holmes (3.49 ERA), and Chris Sale (2.18 ERA). All three took the mound in their previous series against the Phillies.

Meanwhile, the Cubs will first face Reynaldo López, who is starting only his 13th game this season. He has a 4.13 ERA to his name in 76.1 innings of work and is fresh off one of his worst outings of the season. He lasted just 4.2 innings against Tampa Bay on September 9, forking over 6 earned runs and walking three batters.

Martin Pérez is scheduled for the second contest and has certainly pitched well with his 3.08 ERA. Unlike López, he's coming off one of his best outings with 7.0 innings of scoreless ball against the same frisky Tampa team. Still, the 35-year-old southpaw is someone teams can jump on early, and his 8-9 record overall is indicative of just that.

The series finale is currently TBD for Atlanta, so it's still possible the Cubs catch one of their most dynamic arms. Chris Sale would typically be scheduled in this spot, but it's worth wondering if the Braves are interested in getting him some rest before the postseason arrives. Regardless, as of now, Craig Counsell finds himself with a big opportunity to win the battle on the mound over the next couple of days.

Indeed, David Peterson will get the first start against Lopez. He may be far from this team's ace, but Peterson has been rock solid for the majority of his time in Chicago. The ground-ball pitcher is a natural fit in front of this Cubs' defense, and one has to imagine Counsell feels pretty good about his chances every time he is on the mound. After all, Peterson has allowed only 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Peterson has started to walk more batters than the Cubs would like, however. He has given up at least three trips to first in three straight meetings. Assuming he can bring that number back down, the Cubs could have the upper hand on Monday night.

Kevin Gausman will then face off against Pérez on Tuesday. It is worth noting that Gausman has been lit up in two of his last three appearances. He gave up 5 earned runs to the Reds on August 29, only to give up 6 earned runs in 4.0 innings to the Brewers this past week. Both those games also saw him fork over multiple homers.

Still, sandwiched in between those games was a masterpiece against Milwaukee. He went 7.0 innings of one-run baseball with only five hits and nine strikeouts. When Gausman is on, he is one of the best pitchers the Cubs have. And as someone who is used to pitching in high-stakes situations, the Cubs should be glad he is on the mound in this series.

Finally, things will wrap up with Shota Imanaga. The lefty was reeling at the end of August but has bounced back over his last two starts. He's allowed only eight hits and 3 earned runs in the two appearances with a combined eight strikeouts. The home run ball is always going to be a concern, especially against a hard-hitting squad like the Braves. But this latest version of Imanaga should have Cubs fans feeling slightly better.

Assuming Sale is eventually named the starter, though, this will undoubtedly be the toughest of the three meetings. That just makes the first two games all the more important! Time to capitalize.

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