MLB Insider Predicts Surprise NL Central Team to Finish Ahead of Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have been predicted by many experts to not only win the NL Central but also to contend for a World Series title.

And after the offseason the Cubs just had, why not? Acquiring third baseman Alex Bregman, starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, and others to add to an already solid core was monumental. However, not everybody shares the same optimism for Chicago.

Steve Phillips of MLB Network believes that, despite the Cubs' offseason, a surprise team will win the division.

Chicago Cubs outfielders | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Who does Phillips believe will win the NL Central over the Chicago Cubs?

This surprise team is none other than the Cincinnati Reds, who have not won the NL Central division since 2012. While they made a Wild Card berth in 2025, it seems quite far-fetched on paper that the Reds can win the division.

“Their starting pitching matches up with anybody... I think the Reds have a real chance to win the NL Central this year. They're going to be well beyond 78-79 wins.”
Steve Phillips, MLB Network

The Reds went 83-79 in 2025, their most wins since 2021. They have a young and exciting core, but is it enough to take down the Cubs?

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz leads their position players. In 2025, he hit 22 home runs, stealing 37 bases, with a .777 OPS.

But their pitching is what Phillips thinks will separate them.

Expectations for the Reds this season?

“Their starting pitching matches up with anybody... I think the Reds have a real chance to win the NL Central this year. They're going to be well beyond 78-79 wins.” - @StevePhillipsGM pic.twitter.com/cOGpz29pQO
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 22, 2026

Hunter Greene leads a group of young, intriguing pitchers who excelled during the 2025 season. Greene, although injured for a good portion of the season, had a 2.76 ERA in 107.2 innings, striking out 132 batters.

The flamethrowing right-hander is far from the only bright side in this rotation. Left-hander Andrew Abbott made the All-Star Game in 2025, pitching to a 2.87 ERA in 166.1 innings.

Left-hander Nick Lodolo enjoyed a breakout season as well, having a 3.33 ERA in 156.2 innings with 156 strikeouts.

Youngster and former top prospect Chase Burns is a name to watch with this group, despite an average rookie season. Right-hander Brady Singer rounds out a great rotation. However, is the Reds' rotation enough to compete with a Cubs team that is incredibly well-rounded?

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite hitting just 167 home runs last year, the Reds' offense could leap forward. This is due to the signing of third baseman Eugenio Suarez.

In 2025, with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners, Suarez had 49 home runs with an .824 OPS. While Suarez can no longer play even an average third base, his elite power could elevate this Reds team.

But is it likely that the Reds elevate from third to first place? Not if the Cubs have anything to say about it.

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