Ten Important MLB Trends From the First Half

The standings have been turned upside down, and the Marlins are trying to break baseball.

Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer was named an All-Star after his excellent first half. | Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

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The All-Star break is a good time to take stock of what we’ve seen this year and anticipate wild pennant races, even if the standings might not change all that much. Of the 12 teams in playoff position last year at the All-Star break, 10 of them held on to play in October. The only changes: the Astros and Mets fell out, allowing the Guardians and Reds to sneak in. 

This season the standings look more congested, especially in the underwhelming American League, which might lead to lovely chaos. Before the second half begins, here is a look at the top trends of the first half.

1. Shohei Ohtani is making a run at the Cy Young Award.

Ohtani reached the break with a 1.79 ERA while having allowed just four home runs and losing just two games. How many pitchers in the past hundred years have done that with a minimum of 14 starts? One: Greg Maddux in 1995.

The nastiest two-strike pitcher in baseball is the same guy who has hit 22 home runs with a .952 OPS. Folks, we’re looking at peak Ohtani as a two-way player. In half of a season he already has thrown a career high number of 100-mph pitches.

If you need a reason to appreciate what he is doing, try this on for size:

Ohtani in 2026	Number	MLB Rank
Balls Hit 100 MPH	83	24
Pitches Thrown 100 MPH	50 (career high)	13

2. Jacob Misiorowski has the best fastball (metrics) ever.

Ohtani has The Miz to deal with if he wants a Cy Young. Misiorowski averages 100.5 mph on his four-seam fastball, which he releases 7.6 feet from in front of the rubber, which means his average perceived velocity is 102.8 mph—the fastest ever recorded by any pitcher who has thrown at least 250 fastballs in a season.

Here’s what it all means: nobody has ever given hitters less time to hit a pitch than The Miz. 

Misiorowski has thrown 213 pitches this year clocked at 102 mph and faster. Every other MLB pitcher combined has thrown only 152.

3. The standings have been turned upside down.

Of the 13 teams with losing records last year, 11 are no more than four games out of a playoff spot. Five of them are in playoff position (Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox, Twins).

The White Sox are the biggest surprise of all. After the past three seasons of losing 101, 121 and 102 games, they are in first place in the AL Central and on pace for 85 wins.

The four teams with the longest active pennant droughts (Mariners, Pirates, Brewers, Orioles) still can dream on the World Series.

Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski is raising the ceiling for velocity on the mound. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

4. The AL is historically weak.

No AL has ever made the playoffs in a full season with less than the 84 wins of the 1984 Royals. Two teams might sneak in this season under that low bar.

In just 18 days, the Red Sox went from having the worst record in the league to being a half game out of a playoff spot. After more than half a season, every team is in the thick of the slow-speed race but for the Royals, Athletics and Angels.

5. The ABS Challenge system has been a big hit.

Only 2.2 ball/strike calls are being overturned per game, which tells you a) how good are umpires b) the system is not intruding on the flow of the game and c) the limitation on challenges is adding a strategic element. And yes, fans dig the real-time “reveal” in video game form.

Kudos to the Twins, your ABS kings with the most challenges (268) and the most overturned calls (151), at a success rate (56%) slightly above major league average (53%).

But the Pirates haven’t quite figured it out. They have the fewest successful challenges (74) and the worst success rate (41%).

6. Three managers fired.

It’s been a tough year on the I-95 corridor for managers. The Phillies, under Don Mattingly, and Boston Red Sox, under Chad Tracy, are thriving after their teams were quick to can their managers in April. The Mets waited to make a move and are still in a very bad way. 

Interim Red Sox manager Chad Tracy has helped Boston win 14 of its last 16 games. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

7. The Marlins are trying to break baseball.

Their coaches call pitches. Their pitchers throw more breaking pitches than any team in recorded history. Their baserunners steal the second most bases and get thrown out on the bases the second most. They have given all their plate appearances except 40 to players 28 and younger. And they are winning without much power.

The home run defines champions in the modern game. Starting from 2020, here are the MLB ranks in home runs for the past six champions: 1, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2. It’s been more than a decade since a team in the bottom half in home runs won the title (2015 Royals). Now the Marlins (24th), Rays (26th), Guardians (28th) and Brewers (29th) are trying to define a whole new way to win.

8. It’s a young man’s game.

Players 25 and younger are outhitting players 26 and older, .247 to .243. They have a higher slug and higher OPS. Teams are pushing players to the big leagues (and signing them to long-term deals) quicker than ever. 

There are 10 qualified rookies this year with an OPS+ of 100 or better, equaling 1977 for the most in a season since World War II. There are 32 qualified U-25 players with an OPS+ of at least 100, the most in 80 years.

Only one free agent last winter signed a deal of more than five years (Dylan Cease, seven years). This season six rookies have signed contracts of seven years or more (J.J. Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle. Konner Griffin, Colt Emerson, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara).

9. Offense is relatively flat.

Runs per game are up 1.6% and home runs and strikeouts are unchanged. The biggest effect of ABS, which includes more awareness by players and umpires of a strictly defined strike zone, is an increase in walks. The walk rate has hit a 17-year high.

And where have all the great right-handed hitters gone? The top five hitters as ranked by OPS are all left-handed (Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, James Wood, Ben Rice, Ohtani). Batting average by right-handed hitters has dropped from .246 to .241. Only three times since 1920 has it been worse: ’72, ’68 and ’42, all before the adoption of the DH.

10. Fastball velocity is at a record high and fastball use at a record low (again).

This trend shows no sign of stopping. The average fastball velocity (sinkers and four-seamers) is 94.5 mph, marking the sixth straight year it has increased. It is up from 94.3 last year and up a full tick in just five years.

But the name of the pitching game today is spin, shaping and sequencing. Fastball use is 47.0%, down from 47.2% last year. Ten years ago, before the seam-tracking boom, it was 56.2%.

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