Inside The Phillies

Phillies vs. Mets Monday Betting Prediction - NL East showdown in Flushing

Philadelphia looks to extend lead over New York in division race
Kevin Rogers|
Aug 23, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Harrison Bader (2) runs out a single against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park.
Aug 23, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Harrison Bader (2) runs out a single against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The NL East race is far from over, but the Philadelphia Phillies (76-54) can put away the New York Mets (69-61) for good with a solid showing in this three-game series.

Philadelphia heads to Citi Field to face New York, coming off a 5-1 homestand against Seattle and Washington.

The Phillies and Mets begin this critical series on Monday night at 7:10 p.m. ET.

MATCHUP NOTES

Philadelphia dropped the opener of its weekend set to Washington before winning the final two games.

The Phillies hit two home runs in each of the first two games, but didn't go deep in Sunday's 3-2 triumph over the Nationals. Philadelphia led 3-0 before Washington scored two runs in the final two innings to destroy Phillies' run-line bets.

The Mets return home after capturing two of three games over the Atlanta Braves. New York won the first two contests at Truist Park, scoring 21 runs before getting shut down in a 4-3 defeat on Sunday.

These two NL East rivals have played only six times this season as the Mets are 4-2 against the Phillies. New York swept Philadelphia at Citi Field in late April, before the Phillies took two of three at home in June.

PITCHING MATCHUP

Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.46 ERA) may fall short of the NL Cy Young to Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes, but the Philadelphia left-hander has turned a in magnificent last few months.

Sanchez has delivered at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts, while Philadelphia is 12-5 in his past 17 outings. He has posted a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate, coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Mariners his last time out.

In Sanchez's first start against the Mets this season at Citi Field, he lasted two innings and yielded two runs in a 5-1 defeat. Last season, the Phillies won each of Sanchez's final three starts against the Mets, including the lone Philadelphia victory in the NLDS.

Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA) is winless in his last three starts for the Mets. The right-hander allowed five runs (four earned) in five innings of a 5-4 defeat at Washington last Wednesday.

In spite of Senga's record, he has put together a solid season at Citi Field with a 5-1 record and 2.50 ERA. Senga looks to get on track after posting an ERA over 5.00 since the start of July, including four starts of giving up at least three earned runs.

FIRST FIVE INNING TRENDS

The Phillies are on a 6-1 run in the first five innings in the last seven games, while Sanchez is 14-6-5 in the opening five innings this season.

Senga has posted a solid 7-2-1 mark in the first five innings at home, compared to a 1-7-2 record on the road.

BETTING OUTLOOK

DraftKings has listed the Phillies as a -131 favorite with a total of 8 runs.

Sanchez has put together a magnificent season, but it's hard to ignore Senga's dominance at home.

The Mets have a hold on the Phillies since last season's playoff victory and with them returning back to Citi Field, let's look at New York in the first five innings.

BEST BET: Mets F5 (+114)

Published
Kevin Rogers
KEVIN ROGERS

Kevin has spent the last 15 years in the sports gambling space. He covered all major sports at VegasInsider both as a writer and handicapper from 2009 until 2024. He has also covered college basketball and MLB for the Action Network.

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