Why Tigers Must Force Tarik Skubal Trade Suitors to Overpay Correctly

Trading players is an inexact science. But if the Detroit Tigers must trade Tarik Skubal, they must make sure they get the right return.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tarik Skubal likely has one more start to make for the Detroit Tigers before the MLB trade deadline on Aug. 3. After that, it’s a waiting game.

He doesn’t want to leave. Tigers fans don’t want him to leave. The front office likely doesn’t want him to leave. But the reality of the money he can command in free agency — and where the Tigers are in the playoff race — may be too much to overcome.

Detroit must do its due diligence. If it must make the move, it must get the right players in return. There aren’t many trades of this potential magnitude to lean on in baseball history. What is appropriate return for a player like him? Well, there was a trade in 1998 that might serve as a guide.

One Deadline Deal That Worked

Seattle Mariners former pitcher Randy Johnson. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One deadline deal to think of as a potential template is the 1998 trade of Seattle ace Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros. It was a quintessential deadline deal. Johnson was a free agent after the season. The Mariners knew he wasn’t staying. He was already a four-time All-Star and AL Cy Young winner. He was his era’s Skubal.

At the non-waiver deadline, the Mariners made their move and traded him to Houston for three players — pitcher Freddy García, infielder Carlos Guillén and pitcher John Halama.

Johnson helped the Astros get to the playoffs. The trio the Mariners received in return fueled their success the next several seasons.

García became their ace. He went 76-50 in six seasons with the Mariners, was named an AL All-Star twice and finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2001. He played 15 years for seven teams and went 156-108 with a 4.15 ERA. He won a World Series ring with the Chicago White Sox.

Guillén six years for the Mariners before he ended up Detroit for his final eight seasons. With Seattle he slashed .297/.366/.476 with 95 home runs and 449 RBI. With the Tigers, he helped them reach the World Series and made three All-Star Game appearances.

Halama was a serviceable arm who finished his career 56-48 but had his best season with the Mariners, as he went 41-31 including 35 wins in a three-season stretch from 1999-2001. All three were part of the Mariners’ incredible 2001 team, which won 116 games but failed to get to the World Series.

The point is the Mariners turned Johnson into a quality return. Two pitchers that contributed heavily to their success and a versatile infielder. Combined the trio played 40 MLB seasons.

If the Tigers trade Skubal, they can’t allow a chance to get that kind of return pass them by. Prospects are fine. But they need to be the right prospects, ones that will fuel Detroit’s success for years to come, much like Johnson’s trade did for Seattle.