Twins Bullpen Could Not Find Stability Even as Trade Deadline Moves Worked

If we were guided only by the results shown by some performance statistics, we could say that the Minnesota Twins managed to improve one of their most pressing problems at last year’s trade deadline when they decided to strengthen their bullpen.

The addition of two veterans, A.J. Minter, who arrived from the New York Mets, and Jeff Hoffman from the Toronto Blue Jays, raised expectations heading into the final stretch of the season.

Since then, we cannot say otherwise. Minter and Hoffman have delivered. The two combine for 39 appearances, a 3.37 xERA and 0.6 fWAR. Hoffman has not allowed home runs in 17 innings and maintains his high strikeout rate with 13.8 K/9, while Minter has had his struggles, although he has a 91.5 LOB%, a statistic you will often hear about among the Twins’ biggest breakdowns. Being honest, that contribution is not far from what could have been expected from Hoffman and Minter this year.

The question we should ask ourselves is not about what they have failed to do, but about what the rest of the bullpen arms have been able to contribute.

Minnesota has seen an overall improvement from a 4.47 FIP before the trade deadline to 3.85, with more strikeouts (10.1 K/9 versus 8.3) and a slight improvement in walks (4.3 BB/9 versus 4.7). Maybe they do not seem like major improvements, but we should keep in mind that the Twins added only two arms to the bullpen formula they had before. So, the question here should be where they would be if they had not made those moves.

Let’s analyze some of the performance declines that have had the most influence on the losses of a bullpen that is 5-13 with 1.2 fWAR since the trade deadline. This is what comes behind the Minter and Hoffman duo, who have a combined 0.6, while the rest of the bullpen has only 0.5.

Yoendrys Gómez, RHP

Minnesota Twins pitcher Yoendrys Gómez (94). Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I think it is easy to see some things here, because of the way the performance was lost. The combination in Gómez’s decline is brutal, with more walks, more runners reaching base and, as I told you before, the persistent inability to prevent runs.

The drop from a 1.93 ERA to 8.16 is extreme and, of course, it is inevitable to admit that he could not respond at the level he had shown. The process of the situations that caused it explains the collapse: Gómez’s strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeted, dropping from 4.96 to 1.26.

The problem was the loss of his control as his walk rate doubled from 4.13 to 8.79. As he lost the advantage in the count, it was reasonable for his strikeouts and his ability to finish off opposing hitters to decrease, while they have now also raised their home run rate per fly ball from 2.6% to 5.9%. As he has accumulated innings, Gómez has looked less consistent at avoiding fly balls and his GB% rate also plummeted from 32.2% to 20.5%.

Even with Minter and Hoffman in the bullpen equation, the Twins placed all their trust in Gómez and the strategy did not work. He has blown a couple of save opportunities and has two losses with a 13.50 ERA in his last 10 relief appearances. Even so, I think the ability Gómez showed, especially when he took advantage of the opportunities in the first half of the season, has left a good feeling for Minnesota heading into 2027.

Andrew Morris, RHP

Minnesota Twins pitcher Andrew Morris. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Look, I think Morris has been a revelation since his MLB debut with the Twins. His first stretch was worth appreciating, as he had the ability to perform in multi-inning relief appearances and helped save the day on some difficult days for Minnesota’s bullpen.

Morris has 14 relief appearances covering more than one inning this year and in his first 40 relief appearances since arriving in mid-April, he posted a 3.04 xERA and 3.82 xFIP with 0.9 fWAR. The problems came after the trade deadline. You could think the innings began to weigh on him, but the reality is that Morris has fallen considerably over a stretch of only 17 innings.

I thought about it, and it was the first data point I looked for on Baseball Savant, but it was not a loss of velocity. Morris, in fact, increased his average fastball velocity from 97.1 to 98.1, showing enough of his prodigious arm.

But that velocity has not managed to make a difference as the axis of his arsenal. He has increased his walks from 2.9 BB/9 to 4.2 and, although he is allowing a similar slugging percentage, the hits are finding more runners on base.

Kody Funderburk, LHP

Minnesota Twins pitcher Kody Funderburk (57). Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Funderburk’s case is very interesting because he is usually one of the key bullpen pitchers to face left-handed hitters. In that role, he improved considerably from one stretch to another in his strikeout rate against lefties, posting a 6.00 K/BB over only 1.0. However, he could not control the plate appearances in the same way when he did not get the strikeout, seeing his BABIP rise from .205 to .385.

Still, Funderburk has had something special that still seems very important to me in these times when the bullpen is becoming increasingly significant: he has inherited 14 runners since August 3 and only two have scored. That 86% of inherited runners who were left on base gives us a sign of Funderburk’s impact going forward, although some of his slips against lefties definitely proved fatal.

In short roles but ones that have been important in several situations, Taylor Rogers, Tommy Nance and Travis Adams have also gone through inconsistencies, and they were unable to take enough of a leading role after the space left by Anthony Banda’s injury.

Something that still seemed positive to me about the future of this bullpen is that they have a good mix of pitchers capable of providing durability with some veterans like Minter and Hoffman, but they still need to work to find the right arms to handle the pressure. That is the best reading the Twins could take advantage of from the struggles that have moved the team away from the chances of reaching the playoffs.

All advanced analytics verified at Statcast.

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