Yankees Shouldn't Plan for Historic Aaron Judge Production Forever

The 2021 season was pedestrian by Aaron Judge's standards. It was his first full season since 2017, due to a string of fluke injuries, including getting hit by a pitch on the wrist, and the global pandemic, which shut the world down. In 148 games that season, he hit 37 homers to the tune of a 150 wRC+.

Nobody could have ever predicted what came next. In 2022, Judge hit 62 homers and, since then, has collected three American League Most Valuable Player awards, outfoxing historic seasons by Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr. and Cal Raleigh.

Oct 4, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) is congratulated by pitching coach Matt Blake (67) as he rounds the bases after hitting home run #62 to break the American League home run record in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Since Judge's first MVP season, he has hit .311/.439/.677 with a 204 wRC+ in 2,537 plate appearances. Were it not for a short IL stint in 2025, Judge was one hot week away from having another 60-homer season. Not that 53 moonshots are anything to scoff at.

Judge is on a different planet from rest of the league as far as hitting goes. It's a big reason why, despite a mediocre cast at times, they have come as far as they have in some years. They say one player can't carry a team in baseball, but Judge is the outlier there.

One Scout's Warning

One National League Scout warns, though, that for as great as Judge has been, this type of production can't go on forever.

"They'll probably always be fine because they always are," said one National League executive, according to the New York Post's Dan Martin. "But [Judge] is a once-in-a-lifetime player on a streak I don't think we thought we'd see again after the steroid era. He's already done things we've never really seen, but it can't go on forever."

The scout also said that the Yankees shouldn't bank on Judge playing at this level.

"He hit 62 homers and then got better, so maybe he won't fall off like other guys his age," the NL scout said. "But I don't think you can plan on it. Look, he's still maybe the best hitter in the game. Next year or the next? Who knows?"

Glass Half Empty

What if there's a world where Judge has a season that resembles 2021's, which is still elite, but he isn't posting those historic numbers? Most sluggers would sign up for an OPS north of .900, but in comparison to what he has been doing since the year he took home that initial MVP, it's .200 points lower than the norm.

There's a doomsday scenario where Cody Bellinger regresses to the mean, living up to his lackluster peripheral numbers under the hood. Then Giancarlo Stanton finally gets a visit from Father Time, Trent Grisham looks more like the Grisham of old, Jazz Chisholm has one of those long IL stints he had on the Marlins, and both Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe have bad years again.

Aug 31, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger (35) reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the ninth inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

In a lot of ways, it's not so different than the cast he had in 2022. The faces would be different, but the production is the same.

That isn't likely to happen, and it's a glass-half-empty look. They're due to have one of the best offenses in baseball, but a pedestrian year from Judge by his standards could hurt them.

In the case of that 2021 season, the Yankees saw a hot finish by Stanton, and their rotation and bullpen were an impenetrable wall. It's why they made it as far as they did that year, which wasn't far at all.

The rotation could be special in 2026, but that pen hasn't seen many upgrades after being one of the worst among playoff teams last year. It can get ugly again, and it took being one of the best offenses in the sport to carry them to the playoffs.

So far, the Yankees have gotten away with missing out on Juan Soto or avoiding the Kyle Tuckers of the world. Still, if Judge sees a lackluster cast and doesn't crack the 40-homer mark, with that prolific blend of average and power the world has become accustomed to, not having a proper lineup around him could get ugly in the coming years. The Yankees better hope for another historic year by Judge, and similar seasons by the rest of their outfield in Bellinger and Grisham.

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