Odds Stacking in Wizards Favor as Wins Stack Against Them

The Washington Wizards’ recent 128–115 loss to the Sacramento Kings marked their fifth loss in a row and pushed Washington to 10–30 on the season. To many fans around the league, this may just seem like another run-of-the-mill loss for the Wizards and nothing to write home about given the track record they’ve built this year.

Final. #ForTheDistrict | @Ticketmaster pic.twitter.com/MCdP27OudH
— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) January 17, 2026

However, when diving deeper into the story of the season, this loss actually presents itself as especially valuable for the Wizards and the outlook of the rest of their year. Losses are, of course, the main goal as Washington continues to bottom out in hopes of landing one of the coveted top-three picks, but losing to the Kings in particular boosts the odds even more in their favor.

Currently, the Wizards own the third-worst record in the entire NBA, giving them a hefty share of the top lottery odds. Sacramento, however, sits with the fourth-worst record in the league, meaning they too are firmly in the mix for landing a top pick.

Washington clearly recognized this heading into the matchup, holding out multiple starters and key contributors for very minor injuries. It’s obviously speculation to assume those players could have played through said injuries in another scenario, but it was clearly a precautionary move and a conservative approach to injury management.

Washington Wizards Center Marvin Bagley III — Jan 16, 2026; Sacramento, California, USA; Washington Wizards forward Marvin Bagley III (35) exits the game in the fourth quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

For the rest of the season, Wizards fans can likely expect similar trends. Washington as an organization has no need to win games, but that will never stop players and coaches from approaching each night with a winning mindset. Unfortunately—or fortunately, depending on perspective—the young core has already shown enough to raise concern about how many games they could win at full strength, forcing Washington to turn to other methods to lose games.

Losing now may sting, but when the lottery rolls around and those losses are rewarded with a top pick, the pain fans feel today will seem minimal. As for who Washington could select with that pick, that’s a deeper question that likely can’t be answered clearly just yet.

If the Wizards are lucky enough to land the top pick, they should simply take whoever they deem the best player in the class. If they don’t, any spot in the top four would still likely net them a franchise cornerstone, as Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cam Boozer, and Caleb Wilson have all been extraordinary this season.

Washington Wizards Guard Trae Youn — Jan 16, 2026; Sacramento, California, USA; Washington Wizards guard Trae Young (3) walks off the court after the game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Looking further down the draft board, Washington can become more selective. They could dip into a deep pool of point guards, selecting from several intriguing options, or choose to pair another big alongside Alex Sarr—possibly targeting a more physically imposing presence like Flory Bidunga, Malachi Moreno, or Hannes Steinbach.

No matter how the cake is cut, the Wizards are set up for long-term success as long as they play their cards right.

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