2026 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 8: Vikings Lose NFC's Top Seed With Loss to Lions

We’re approaching the midway point of the 2026 NFL season, which means it’s time for our first look at the upcoming playoff picture.

Week 8 brought with it plenty of exciting action across the league, as the Cardinals mounted an epic comeback over the Cowboys to log a 33–30 victory; Joe Burrow dragged the Bengals’ offense across the finish line with five passing touchdowns and a rushing score, en route to a 43–36 win over the Titans, and the Vikings, the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team, fell to the Lions, 19–15, in Detroit.

Elsewhere, the Ravens will unfortunately be without Lamar Jackson for the foreseeable future as the quarterback will undergo surgery on his right thumb. The Buccaneers notched their third win of the season despite Baker Mayfield going 0-of-3 passing at a rain-soaked Raymond James Stadium.

Here’s a look at the current NFL playoff picture amid Week 8’s action.

Note: All postseason probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s playoff simulator.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Buffalo Bills

Record: 6–1 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 96%

After seeing Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson go down with a thumb injury on his first pass attempt, the Bills were able to handle Baltimore with ease in a monster 36–10 victory, holding an opponent to under 20 points for just the second time this year.

Now 6–1, Buffalo holds the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoff picture as they get ready to travel to Minnesota next Monday night to take on the 6–1 Vikings in prime time.

No. 2: Denver Broncos

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 83%

The Broncos pulled off a miraculous comeback over the Chiefs to not only win their fourth consecutive game, but also move into first place in the AFC West.

Denver heads to Carolina next Sunday, before a Week 10 bye breaks up a stretch run that includes the Raiders and a Black Friday matinee against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, along with intraconference matchups against the Bills and Patriots.

No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 70%

The Steelers beat the Browns 27–6, earning sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh was incredible on the ground, rushing for 200 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries, while its defense sacked quarterback Deshaun Watson eight times and held the Cleveland offense to only 34 rushing yards on 15 attempts (2.4 yards per carry).

After a Week 9 bye, the Steelers will head to Cincinnati for an in-division matchup against the Bengals before a grueling four-week stretch against the Eagles, Broncos, Texans and Jaguars.

No. 4: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 5–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 94%

Speaking of the Jaguars, they sit at 5–2 after their 42–7 shellacking of the Colts.

The win over Indianapolis marked Jacksonville’s third three-score victory of the season, and with Trevor Lawrence continuing to play some of the best football of his career, it’s fair to argue that the Jaguars are the most dangerous team in the entire AFC.

No. 5: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 5–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 84%

The Chiefs were stunned by the Broncos on Sunday, 28–24, and fell from first place in the AFC playoff race to the No. 5 seed.

Kansas City now has a favorable stretch coming up with games against the Jets, Falcons and Cardinals before a calendar-circling Week 12 matchup against the Bills in Buffalo.

No. 6: Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 5–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 84%

The Bengals got a vintage Joe Burrow performance as the 29-year-old threw for 462 yards, accounted for six total touchdowns and led Cincinnati to a 43–36 comeback victory over the Titans.

The win was the Bengals’ third in a row after a 2–2 start, and the club now sits firmly in the AFC’s wild-card race with an overseas trip to Madrid coming up next Sunday, where they’ll take on the Falcons at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.

No. 7: New England Patriots

Record: 5–3 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 84%

The Patriots took on water against the Dolphins early on Sunday, but scored 21 straight points to begin the second half and ultimately came away with a 24–19 win. New England is now 5–3 and sits in the AFC’s final wild-card spot through eight weeks.

In what will be Tom Brady’s first trip to Gillette Stadium’s press box, the Patriots will welcome the Packers to Foxborough, Mass. next Sunday to begin a stretch run that includes—among others—contests against the Lions, Vikings, Chiefs and Broncos to close out the year.

AFC: IN THE HUNT

8. Cleveland Browns (5–3)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (4–4)
10. Baltimore Ravens (4–4)

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 6–1 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 95%

Despite being on their bye, the 49ers now have the NFC’s top seed after the Vikings’ loss to the Lions.

San Francisco lost to the Falcons in Week 7, and has some holes to patch if it wants to continue its push toward another Super Bowl appearance. For now, the 49ers remain in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye.

No. 2: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 6–1 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 84%

While the Vikings lost the No. 1 seed in the NFC with their loss to the Lions on Sunday, they remain in first place in the NFC North.

While Minnesota’s defense remains a force, its offense has accounted for 20-plus points just twice all season, calling into question whether the Vikings have enough on offense, 01m6cen3xk8p, to make a deep postseason run.

No. 3: New York Giants

Record: 4-2-1 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 61%

The Giants were on their bye, and with the Cowboys’ stunning 33–30 loss to the Cardinals, they remained in first place in the NFC East with a 4-2-1 record.

Coming off a 27–21 win over the Texans in J.J. McCarthy’s first start last weekend, New York will head to Philadelphia next Sunday for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff against the Eagles.

No. 4: Carolina Panthers

Record: 3–4 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 27%

The Panthers lost 27–19 to the Packers on Thursday night. However, thanks to the rest of the NFC South sitting at 3–5 or worse, Carolina still holds the No. 4 spot in the conference’s playoff picture.

With the Buccaneers suddenly on their heels and a challenging matchup against the Broncos in Week 9, the Panthers’ spot atop the division could be gone by the end of next weekend.

No. 5: Detroit Lions

Record: 5–2 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 76%

The Lions took down the unbeaten Vikings behind a 153-yard rushing performance from Jahmyr Gibbs, and now sit in the No. 5 spot. Detroit is also 4–0 at home on the year.

The Lions will head to Miami for a matchup against the Dolphins next Sunday before a Week 10 trip across the pond to face the Patriots in Germany.

No. 6: Chicago Bears

Record: 5–2 | Opponents left above .500: 7| Playoff probability: 74%

The Bears are on a whopping 11-day stretch without a bye week in the middle thanks to playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and Monday Night Football in Week 8.

Chicago will take on the Seahawks to close out Week 8, and with a win, could take the No. 5 seed over the Lions in the NFC wild-card race.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 5–3 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 47%

The Packers began Week 8 with a 27–19 win over the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, and have now won four of their last five games after a 2–2 start.

Green Bay will head to New England next Sunday to take on the Patriots before returning home in Week 10 for an NFC North matchup against the Vikings. All four NFC North teams own spots in the conference’s playoff picture, making everyone of these intradivision matchups count a bit extra.

NFC: IN THE HUNT

8. Seattle Seahawks (4–3)
9. Los Angeles Rams (4–4)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–5)

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