Realistic Expectations for 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey in 2025

Christian McCaffrey is one of the most difficult players in the NFL to project this year.

Nov 10, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) catches the ball over Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Christian McCaffrey is one of the most difficult players in the NFL to project this year.

In 2022 and 2023, he played like a Hall of Famer. He was clearly the best and most valuable player on a 49ers team that was loaded with talent. But in 2024, he had bilateral Achilles tendonitis. And when he finally returned midseason, he was a shell of himself. And then he tore his PCL after just four games.

So what should we expect from McCaffrey this year? Head coach Kyle Shanahan recently said that McCaffrey is as "healthy as can be." Does that mean he'll bounce back to the player he was in 2022 and 2023 when he was arguably the most dangerous offensive weapon in football?

It's important to note that McCaffrey did not rush back from bilateral Achilles tendonitis. He was cautious, he took his time he went to Germany for treatments that aren't even legal in America. And when he finally felt he was ready to play, he clearly had lost a step. He didn't have the burst or top-end speed that made him special. In four games, he topped out at 17.4 miles per hour, which is slow by his standards. Before he got injured, he routinely hit 20 miles per hour or faster.

McCaffrey will turn 29 in June. At his age, it's unrealistic to expect him to turn back the clock and be someone he was two years ago. You never bounce back fully from bilateral Achilles tendonitis. Injuries always take a toll. So he might stay healthy this season, but I wouldn't expect him to average 5.0 yards per carry like he did in the past.

The days of McCaffrey being a dominant runner most likely are over.