Bold Predictions For the Bears Week 5 Matchup Against the Packers

The NFL's most storied rivalry will be on display on Sunday as the Chicago Bears travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.

Unlike semi-recent history, the current chapter of that story looks more promising for Chicago. It's not too often that the NFL would flex the clash to a less desirable time slot, but that's what they did with this matchup, which was initially scheduled for the FOX Game of the Week 3:25 kickoff.

While Caleb Williams not being in the lineup for Chicago certainly played a role in that decision, Green Bay's rough start to the season is more to blame. They're 2-2, but their two wins were uninspiring (they beat the Jets and Buccaneers by a combined six points), and their two losses were even duller.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bears are 1.5-point road favorites over their rivals, and the experts are going all in on them.

We also wanted to go all in on a few bold predictions for the matchup.

D'Andre Swift runs for 150 yards

Tyson Bagent handing the ball to D'Andre Swift — Oct 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) hands the ball off to running back D'Andre Swift (4) against the New York Jets during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Not to brag, but we're 2/2 when boldly projecting running back performances. D'Andre Swift finished a mere one yard short of our 125-yard projection in the season opener (we don't care what you say, that's a win), and Kyle Monangai scored two touchdowns against the Jets last week.

We're going back to the well this week with another Swift projection. He'll be highly motivated to bounce back strong after getting benched against New York. Luckily, he'll have a great opportunity to do that against the league's fifth-worst rushing defense.

The Packers have allowed just under 140 rushing yards per game. With Kyle Monangai on the mend, Swift will have a full plate on Sunday. They'll lean into him heavily to keep Green Bay's pass rush from pinning their ears back in the pass-rush department.

Swift has never had more than 71 yards on the ground against Green Bay. He'll have more than double that amount this time around, though. Also, he won't fumble the ball this week. How's that for bold?

Montez Sweat gets 2 sacks

Montez Sweat is due for a big game. While the pass-rush has vastly outperformed expectations, he's been somewhat quiet. He does have two sacks, but Dayo Odeyingbo has been far more disruptive.

We think that changes on Sunday (although we also like Odeyingbo's ability to take advantage of Green Bay's weak offensive line). Sweat always seems to bring out his A-game against Green Bay. He had a sack in both regular-season matchups last season and hit Packers quarterback Jordan Love three times in the playoffs.

The 30-year-old should pick up right where he left off on Sunday. Green Bay's offensive line has struggled mightily this season. Sweat will take advantage of that fact with a two-sack performance.

The Bears win on a walk-off field goal

Cairo Santos making a kick — Oct 4, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos (8) kicks a field goal against the New York Jets during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Vegas got this one right. If Caleb Williams had been healthy, I'm confident the Bears would handle Green Bay easily. With Tyson Bagent under center for Chicago, the 1.5-point line makes sense. It'll be a close game.

The Bears have won three of the past four games against the Packers. They would've won four of the past five if Green Bay hadn't blocked their game-winning field goal attempt (after Matt Eberflus frustratingly didn't try to make it an easier attempt) in their Week 11 matchup of the 2024 season.

Bears kicker Cairo Santos will get a chance to exorcise some demons this week. Tyson Bagent gets them in position to hit a game-winner, and the Packers won't block this one. Santos will be lauded as the hero, and the NFL is going to regret flexing the game into a less desirable time slot.

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