What Are the Bears' Odds of Finding a Quality Offensive Tackle in Round 1?

This is my fifth and final position evaluation that I will be analyzing ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. I wanted to cover each of the positions that I could see the Bears targeting in the first round.

1. Defensive Tackles

2. Defensive Ends

3. Safeties

4. Cornerbacks

The Bears heavily addressed left tackle through free agency, but there is reason to believe that they could prioritize the position in the draft later this month. They've taken the shotgun approach to fill their weakness (with Ozzy Trapilo's status being murky after rupturing his Achilles in the Wild Card Round against Green Bay), signing three players to one-year deals for 2026.

The future of the left tackle position is very much in doubt, as they seem to have understandable concerns with Trapilo's ability to bounce back from the injury. Ben Johnson said it's difficult to forecast how the position will fare over the next five years at the annual league meetings, so it seems like they're leaving all options on the table when it comes to the draft.

Ryan Poles also vowed to use the Best Player Available (BPA) approach throughout the draft. With a relatively loaded first-round offensive tackle class, it wouldn't be surprising if they decided to go that route early.

How have teams picking offensive tackles at the back end of the first round fared over the past 15 years?

Player	Team	Year & Pick	Grade
Bryan Bulaga	Packers	2010, 23	Hit
Anthony Castonzo	Colts	2011, 22	Hit
James Carpenter	Seahawks	2011, 25	Average
Gabe Carimi	Bears	2011, 29	Miss
Derek Sherrod	Packers	2011, 32	Miss
Riley Reiff	Lions	2012, 23	Hit
Cedric Ogbuehi	Bengals	2015, 21	Miss
D.J. Humphries	Cardinals	2015, 24	Hit
Germain Ifedi	Seahawks	2016, 31	Miss
Garett Bolles	Broncos	2017, 20	Mega Hit
Ryan Ramczyk	Saints	2017, 32	Mega Hit
Isaiah Wynn	Patriots	2018, 23	Average
Andre Dillard	Eagles	2019, 22	Miss
Tytus Howard	Texans	2019, 23	Average
Kaleb McGary	Falcons	2019, 31	Hit
Isaiah Wilson	Titans	2020, 29	Miss
Christian Darrisaw	Vikings	2021, 23	Mega Hit
Tyler Smith	Cowboys	2022, 24	Mega Hit (at guard)
Anton Harrison	Jaguars	2023, 27	Hit
Jordan Morgan	Packers	2024, 25	Average
Tyler Guyton	Cowboys	2024, 29	Average
Josh Conerly	Commanders	2025, 29	Hit
Josh Simmons	Chiefs	2025, 32	Hit

This one produced surprising results. Of the 23 offensive tackles that were drafted in the Bears' range since 2010, over half of them became really solid starters. Four of them became downright elite. That is by far the best hit rate among all the positions that I've analyzed.

Likewise, only six busts got drafted during that span. That's also the best of the five positions I've looked into.

With that said, all of the busts were major misses (besides maybe Germaine Ifedi). Three of them, including Ifedi, Derek Sherrod, and Isaiah Wilson, were also considered massive reaches when they got drafted. All three selections were good examples of a general manager thinking they were outsmarting everyone else, and looking downright silly in the process.

On the other hand, virtually none of the players who lived up to their draft position were considered reaches. The only major draft reach from the group that eventually developed into a solid (albeit far from unspectacular) starter was James Carpenter. Reaching for a first-round offensive lineman is never smart, and this list reinforced that notion.

The fact that six of the hits or mega hits were left tackles was something I wasn't really expecting. Left tackles tend to protect their quarterbacks' blindside (there are only three left-handed quarterbacks in the league), so the top left tackles historically get pushed up the boards in each class. Right tackles tend to be much more devalued in comparison.

I expected this list to include many more right tackles than left tackles, but that really wasn't the case. In fact, 13 of the 23 players included in the study got drafted to play on the left side. In retrospect, it makes some sense considering that the entire first round features players who get pushed to the top of the board.

What does this mean for the Bears chances of drafting a quality starter?

Nov 28, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils offensive lineman Max Iheanachor (58) against the Arizona Wildcats during the 99th Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

I'm personally not a fan of them drafting a left tackle in the first round. It's just not a glaring weakness after their free agent moves. They would be much better off addressing their needs on the defensive side of the ball with their first three picks.

Basically, I'm asking whether these findings are enough to change my mind on the subject. While I still would much rather see them address the defense first and foremost, I think these results will at least keep me somewhat grounded. The hit rate is by far the best among the positions I reviewed.

With that said, I'm still not jumping on that bandwagon by any means. I've always maintained that these studies are simply a fun exercise to see what the Bears are historically up against, given their rare draft position. Each class is different, and there could be some really solid edge rushers and safeties (!!!) on the board at pick 25.

Which left tackle prospects would make sense for Chicago?

As for the potential fits and players the Bears have seemingly been doing their homework on, there are a few prospects that could be viable options in the first round. General manager Ryan Poles was front and center for Kadyn Proctor's Pro Day workout. With his combination of size and athleticism, I wouldn't be surprised if he's near the top of their wish list.

The Bears have also held top-30 visits with a few other top tackles in the class, Max Iheanachor and Caleb Lomu. The latter is probably the most palatable tackle prospect for the Bears. He's one of the cleaner offensive line prospects in this year's class and is a natural fit at left tackle.

Iheanachor, meanwhile, shouldn't even be in consideration at 25. He'd only make sense if they want to address the tackle position early, and he's available in a trade-down scenario. He's a great athlete, but they should draft another college right tackle and expect them to transition seamlessly to the left side. No thank you.

Positional hit rate study overview

	DT	DE	S	CB	LT
Mega Hit	2	5	2	4	4
Hit	4	3	5	6	8
Average	4	6	4	6	5
Miss	8	11	3	11	6