Bear Digest

What law of averages for top overall picks says about Caleb Williams Year 2

Analysis: Caleb Williams beat many of the averages for No. 1 overall draft picks in their first seasons but what those averages say for their second seasons is what matters now.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams takes the field for the loss to Seattle, one of four games when the Bears offense failed to score a TD.
Caleb Williams takes the field for the loss to Seattle, one of four games when the Bears offense failed to score a TD. | Talia Sprague-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

There were actually serious suggestions Caleb Williams would take the Bears to this week's Super Bowl prior to last season.

Of course that was never going to be the case, even if Matt Eberflus' best laid plans hadn't gone awry. Jayden Daniels didn’t even achieve it despite a rookie year for all eternity.

Quarterbacks chosen with the No. 1 overall pick seem destined for less success initially. It's what the numbers say but Ben Johnson is here to say something can be different.

However, going into the season statistics said first-overall picks were better prepared in this era for early success than in the past. Eight of the last 10 threw more TDs than interceptions as rookies. Now it's nine of the last 11.

More important than statistics are wins. Only Jeff George came into a better situation than Williams in terms of joining teams with higher win totals, as the Colts were 8-8 before they went 7-9 in his rookie year. The Bears' seven wins in 2023 only served to stir false optimism Williams might build upon 2023 for an even higher win total.    

What Williams did was post some rookie numbers strongly suggesting he'll move on and compete at a much higher level.

Then again, nothing is guaranteed in what is the ultimate team sport. Seventeen of the 28 quarterbacks chosen first overall elevated their teams to better records than the year before they came in the league, and Williams was not one of those QBs.

The averages

The ratio of Williams' 20 touchdown passes and six interceptions is easily his strongest statement about the future.

He'll need to pick it up in other areas, like yards per attempt and completion percentage, especially on deeper throws.

The averages for first overall picks say something positive about the future for Williams if he follows trends.

There have been 28 No. 1 overall quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era and Williams did better than most in his first year.

In terms of teams, first overall picks average 3.9 wins as rookies and Williams posted five.

The future

That was last year. What's important is 2025.

The first overall picks averaged 2.5 more wins in their second year starting, or 6.4 wins. It's probably no great consolation for Bears fans because 2.5 more wins would put them at 7.5, and this is about where many Las Vegas oddsmakers had them last year prior to the draft.

In terms of what can be expected individually for Williams, quarterbacks taken first overall average  5.3% more in completion percentage for Year 2, 4.9 more touchdown passes thrown, 1.8 more interceptions thrown and they also average a passer rating increase of 5.8 points. That would put Williams somewhere around 93.1, or below where Mitchell Trubisky was in his second year.

A few outliers in this group of QBs drove down averages, but those were balanced out by QBs like Peyton Manning and Eli Manning, who enjoyed huge jumps in passer rating during their second seasons.

Of the 26 QBs, 18 threw more touchdown passes in their second season. The fact 13 threw more interceptions was largely because they played more games and threw more passes in their second seasons. With Williams, this doesn't apply as he already became the first Bears quarterback since Jay Cutler in 2009 to start every game.

While all of these possibilities are based on averages, there is nothing average about Bears plans for Williams.

"He is a phenomenal talent that had as many quarterbacks do, an up-and-down rookie year," coach Ben Johnson said. "Where I see my role is as a supporter of him. This offense will be calibrated with him in mind."

Considering the last offense seemed to have nothing in mind and Williams still put up the numbers he did, the Bears can look for statistical jumps of major proportions going forward.

And if they actually solve their offensive line problems, it could be even more impressive.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.