Prediction panel's split decision hints Bills break through in AFC title game

The Buffalo Bills are 0-3 in their last three playoff games against the Kansas City Chiefs, but SI's expert panel suggests the underdogs will prevail.

Ralph Ventre | Jan 26, 2025

Nov 17, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts to scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

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The Buffalo Bills are on the cusp of reaching the Super Bowl, but the Kansas City Chiefs stand in their way once again.

The Chiefs have directly eliminated the Bills from postseason play three of the last four years. Despite a 4-1 regular season record against Kansas City since 2020, Buffalo is 0-3 in playoff meetings during that span.

Buffalo has the chance to write a new script in the AFC Championship Game on January 26. The Bills visit Arrowhead Stadium as a 1.5-point betting underdog with kickoff set for 6:30 pm ET.

"Everything that's happened in the past, win or lose, it doesn't mean anything. We play them this weekend. They're a great team and they've done different things since the last time we played them. It's right back to putting in the preparation and the studying throughout the week to get ready for the game," said Bills' wide receiver Khalil Shakir.

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) catches a touchdown agaistn Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A win on Sunday will put Buffalo back in the Super Bowl the first time in 31 years. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fighting to become the first team to win three straight world championships in the NFL's Super Bowl era.

When it comes to pregame predictions, Sports Illustrated's six-member panel leans toward the Bills being able to finally slay the dragon. Four of six panelists picked Buffalo to win the game with only writers Matthew Verderame and Gilberto Manzano siding with Kansas City. As always, all MMQB selections are straight up.

Both teams are relatively healthy heading into the conference title bout. The Chiefs have no players carrying injury designations into Sunday. The Bills have ruled out safety Taylor Rapp while starting cornerback Christian Benford is questionable.

MMQB AFC Championship Game Predictions

Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Pick: Bills

Conor Orr, senior writer
Pick: Bills

Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Pick: Chiefs

Matt Verderame, staff writer
Pick: Chiefs

John Pluym, managing editor
Pick: Bills

Mitch Goldich, senior editor
Pick: Bills