Buffalo Bills' chances of winning AFC East vastly improved after win over Patriots

The Buffalo Bills’ division title hopes were on life support entering a Week 15 matchup with the New England Patriots.

However, a comeback win over the Patriots has served as a set of paddles to the chest of the Bills, reinvigorating their opportunity to earn the AFC East crown for a sixth straight season.

Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) reacts after a sack against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Improved opportunity

Per Next Gen Stats, the Bills’ chances of winning the division have jumped to 34% following Sunday’s victory, which is much greater than where they stood before the game against New England.

Leading into the Week 15 game, the Bills had an 11% chance of winning the division, per the New York Times Playoff Simulator. That’s a considerable jump for a team hoping to extend its supremacy over its longtime rival.

MORE: What are the chances Buffalo Bills overtake New England Patriots, win AFC East?

The Bills’ win probability was as low as 8.9% in their 35-31 comeback win over the Patriots to stay in the hunt for the AFC East division.

Current Chances to Win AFC East:
1. Patriots (11-3): 63% ⬇️
2. Bills (10-4): 37% ⬆️

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 14, 2025

What do the Bills need?

With that said, it’s still a long shot for the Bills to claim the East title, as New England still holds the tiebreaker in terms of divisional record despite the head-to-head tiebreaker being deemed irrelevant with Buffalo’s big win. That means the Bills’ best chance of overcoming what previously appeared to be an insurmountable deficit within the division would be for the Patriots to lose two of their final three games of the season.

New England will finish up with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.

After divisional record, the next tiebreaker would be each team’s record against common opponents, followed by conference record.

Where do the Bills sit?

Buffalo (10-4) is currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC as of 7 p.m. Sunday. The Bills will finish the season with games against the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets, needing to run the table if they hope to have a chance of overcoming the Patriots (11-3) to finish as one of the top four seeds in the conference.

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