What are the chances Buffalo Bills overtake New England Patriots, win AFC East?

Per the New York Tmes Playoff Simulator, the Bills still have a slim chance to win the division.

Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) reacts to making a catch against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

That’s what Buffalo Bills fans find themselves asking regarding their team’s chances of winning a sixth straight division title as it enters a critical Week 15 rematch with the New England Patriots, trailing the AFC East leader by two games.

Well, despite their current deficit in the standings, per the New York Times Playoff Simulator, the Bills (9-4) do indeed still have a chance to claim the AFC East crown, albeit a small one.

RELATED: Where do Bills stand in AFC postseason seeding after Sunday's win?

A fan watches players warming up before the Bills vs. Bengals game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Dec. 7, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Playoff percentages

Entering Week 15, the Bills’ chances of winning the East sit at 11%, per the Times. If the Bills are to beat the Patriots (11-2) on Sunday, those chances would improve to 24%. However, if Buffalo falls at the hands of New England this weekend, the Bills would have a less than 1% chance of entering the playoffs as a divisional champion.

Extending beyond the division, the Bills remain incredibly likely to make the postseason. Per the Playoff Simulator, Buffalo currently has a 98% chance of punching its postseason ticket, with its playoff probability rising to above 99% if it moves past the Patriots on Sunday.

MORE: Bills rocket toward top of SI’s power rankings, putting AFC on notice

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is forced out of bounds by Buffalo Bills defensive end Joey Bosa during second half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Oct. 5, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Where will they fall?

As far as the coveted No. 1 seed? Well, that’s a distant long shot, as the Bills have just a 3% chance of earning the top spot in the AFC. Per the Times’ simulator, the most likely scenario for the Bills entering the matchup with New England is that they will earn the No. 5 seed, a wild-card spot before heading on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

That would likely pit the Bills against the AFC North champion. As it stands entering Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) lead the division and have a 69% chance of finishing atop the North, per the Playoff Simulator. The Bills dominated Pittsburgh 26-7 in Week 13.

So, it's either take care of business with a win over the Patriots to remain in the divisional hunt or get set to head on the road for the first round of the playoffs. The Bills will make their choice on Sunday.

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