Full Season Projection Has Bills Falling Short in Frustrating Playoff Loss

Joe Brady enters his first season as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills and the expectations for him are through the roof. After Sean McDermott had Buffalo on the doorstep of a Super Bowl for years, Brady will be expected to get them over the hump.

He has the talent to get the job done, especially on offense with Josh Allen and James Cook. Defesnively, they made some tweaks, including the addition of outside linebacker Bradley Chubb. Their biggest move, however, was adding Jim Leonhard as their new defensive coordinator.

We don't know how the season will pan out, but ESPN has tried to predict things before Week 1 begins. Seth Walder wrote about their Football Power Index simulation, which predicts the entire year. For the Bills, they dominate in the regular season, securing a 12-win campaign while reclaiming the AFC East crown.

Buffalo Bills lock up AFC East in FPI projection but fall short in playoffs

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen stands in the pocket in the first quarter against the Carolina Panthers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"Not only did the 12-5 Bills get their AFC East title back in emphatic fashion, winning the division by three games, but they edged the Chiefs for the top seed, taking the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a 31-30 win over Kansas City in Week 12," Walder wrote.

Walder says fans are "buzzing" as the Bills go into the playoffs with the No. 1 seed. They then explode for 55 points in a big win over the Indianapolis Colts to get into the AFC Championshipo Game. Unfortunately, the FPI has them losing after that in a frustrating defensive battle against the Chargers.

"The Bills scored only seven points in the AFC Championship Game thanks to two Allen fumbles and an interception thrown to Tarheeb Still. Buffalo's defense more than held its own, but Los Angeles scored just enough to win 10-7 on the road to get Jim Harbaugh back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 14 years," Walder wrote.

One-score playoff performance would be disheartening for Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills head coach Joe Brady looks on during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at New Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For most rookie head coaches, a trip to the AFC Championship Game would be a major win. For the Bills, however, it would be a frustrating loss, especially if they were to suffer a defeat the way the FPI predicted. Three turnovers from Allen and a seven-point performance from an offensive-minded coach such as Brady would be infuriating.

In the past, Allen has had struggles with turnovers during the playoffs, but that has typically had a lot to do with a lack of pass-catchers. The Bills added DJ Moore this year in a trade with the Chicago Bears in an effort to take some of the pressure off of Allen.

If that all ends up with another terrible performance, it would be tough for fans not to feel very discouraged. It would also put Brady on thin ice since a one-score performance in the title game would be unforgivable.

— Sign up for OnSI’s Free Buffalo Bills Newsletter —

Add us as a preferred source on Google