Three Bold Predictions for Bills' Season With Joe Brady, Josh Allen and Jim Leonhard

The Buffalo Bills head into the September 13 regular season opener with a first-year head coach at the helm and a new defense in place.

While Joe Brady moves from offensive coordinator to head coach, and Jim Leonhard takes over as defensive coordinator, expectations remain sky high for the Bills mainly due to franchise quarterback Josh Allen.

In addition to expecting the Bills to win at least 11 regular season games for the seventh year in a row, here are three bold predictions for their first Sean McDermott-less season of Allen's career.

Joe Brady, Josh Allen — Bills head coach Joe Brady, quarterback Josh Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael watch the team warm up before the Bills preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium on Aug. 27, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Bills take back AFC East title

Considering the Bills are currently a -135 favorite to win their division this season (DraftKings), this may be the least boldest of the three optimistic predictions.

Still, the New England Patriots, who blocked Buffalo from a sixth straight AFC East crown last year, are the reigning conference champions, and, in the minds of some delusional fans, quarterback Drake Maye's one impressive season somehow supersedes Josh Allen's unprecedented eight-year touchdown total that places him alone in NFL history.

The bottom line is New England's schedule is much tougher this season, and the Patriots certainly won't be sneaking up on any opponents. Additionally, Maye will have to prove capable of countering the counter moves that NFL defenses will make after watching 2025 film.

With the Patriots in an unfamiliar role, the Bills have a new energy following the changes in head coaches coupled with the arrival of defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. Buffalo has won at least 11 games every season dating back to 2020, posting 13-win campaigns in 2020, 2022 and 2024. While the Bills should keep humming, the Patriots seem ripe for a slight regression.

Josh Allen passes for 4500+ yards

Allen, who eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark every year from 2020 through 2023, has done this only once in his career. DraftKings puts the odds of Allen hitting 4,500 yards through to the air +600, so it's a bit of a long shot, but it's more than possible following the offseason coaching change.

In 16 games during the 2020 season, Allen passed for 4,544 yards on 572 attempts with Brian Daboll calling the offense. That same season, the Panthers threw 550 times out of 993 snaps with Brady as offensive coordinator and Teddy Bridgewater as QB1.

In 2023, Allen passed for 4,306 yards on 579 attempts. Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator midway through that season, but the young coordinator seemed handcuffed by Sean McDermott in the two subsequent seasons.

Allen threw the ball only 483 times in 2024 and 2025. He also no longer had Stefon Diggs those two seasons, but DJ Moore's arrival gives the Bills a WR1 again.

With Brady now in control, and Moore on board, look for the Bills to rely more heavily on the pass, especially down field. If Allen gets more than 550 pass attempts, he could have his biggest season yet.

Bills' defense finishes in NFL Top 12 vs. the run

Buffalo became known as soft against the run under McDermott's tenure. It was the defense's Achilles heel on multiple occasions when the gap integrity-reliant scheme failed.

The thought is that Leonhard can find a way to make the Bills at least marginally better through scheming and game planning. In 2025, Leonhard was on staff for a Denver Broncos' defense that ranked second overall against the run (91.1). The Broncos allowed 3.87 yards per rush to opponents, third-stingiest on the circuit.

Broncos' run defense — Buffalo Bills running back James Cook tries to make forward motion with teammate Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins helping him by pulling him while a host of Denver Broncos try to bring him down at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Meanwhile, the Bills' defense ranked 28th against the run (136.2) in 2025. Opponents gained 5.14 yards per rush against Buffalo, which was 30th in that category.

If Leonhard's aggressive 3-4 scheme can get opponent rushing totals down under 110 yards, the Bills will have a shot to crack the Top 12. Such an improvement could pay huge dividends.

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