Ventre's Views: Why Bills' Week 3 Test vs. Chargers Will Be Closer Than You Think

The point spread movement may suggest otherwise, but the Buffalo Bills' Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers will be closer than it may look.

No, it's not a trap game. No NFL team is overlooking an opponent in Week 3, especially if the opponent was a playoff team last year.

It will, however, be a tough test for the Bills, who have jumped to a 7.0-point home favorite (per DraftKings) in the September 27 game. Last week, the early look-ahead betting lines had Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite, but that was before the Chargers lost at home to the Las Vegas Raiders in Sunday's late window.

Sep 17, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is interviewed after the game against the Detroit Lions at New Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the Chargers (0-2) have already been depleted by injury, and 1 p.m. ET kickoffs have rarely been kind to West Coast teams traveling east, the Bills (2-0) cannot bank on an easy day at the office.

Buffalo may wind up winning comfortably in the end, but to expect anything less than a fierce fight from winless Chargers is to ignore history.

Desperation fuels underdog Chargers

The odds of qualifying for the playoffs decrease dramatically for teams who lose their first three games. As a result, 0-2 teams are usually driven to avoid an 0-3 start at all costs. In fact, underdogs in the Chargers' situation have a tendency to cover the point spread in Week 3.

"This is one of those be careful games. I know they're 0-2, they're not a bad football team," said NFL Films producer Greg Cosell previewing the matchup on One Bills Live.

Simply put, the Chargers have their backs against the wall, and a desperate team is always a dangerous team. Expect feisty head coach Jim Harbaugh to pull out all the stops to try and steal a win in Orchard Park.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert makes an off balance throw as he is pressured by Bills Jerry Hughes | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Remember last September

If last fall provides any indication, then the Bills are in for a dogfight.

While Buffalo won its first four games last season, it wasn't exactly an stress-free stretch of football.

First, the 2-0 Bills hosted the 0-2 Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. The game was tied 21-21 early in fourth quarter.

Then, with the Bills holding a late 28-21 lead, the Dolphins were marching for the game-tying touchdown in Buffalo territory. Fortunately, Terrel Bernard stepped up and intercepted an errant Tua Tagovailoa pass to end the threat in the eventual 31-21 victory.

Sep 18, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (8) runs against the Miami Dolphins in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The following week, the 3-0 Bills hosted the 0-3 New Orleans Saints and inexperienced starting quarterback Spencer Rattler.

When New Orleans hit a 35-yard field goal with 8:56 remaining in the fourth quarter, the Bills' lead shrunk to 21-19. The Saints only settled for a field goal on the drive when Brandin Cooks failed to hold onto a pass in the end zone.

That fourth-quarter sequence was after Buffalo needed an acrobatic Cole Bishop interception in the red zone to hold a 14-10 lead at halftime.

The Bills won, 31-19, but not without a little unneeded stress along the way.

Therefore, don't be surprised if the Chargers make things slightly uncomfortable on Sunday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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