Percentages say Bills headed for road Wild Card playoff game against familiar foe

Entering Sunday's showdown against the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills' most likely first-round playoff opponent is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Josh Allen | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

If the Buffalo Bills go into Gillette Stadium on Sunday and beat the New England Patriots, the world - especially from our perch in the AFC East - will look much different come Monday morning.

The Bills would trail the Pats by only one game with three remaining and their hopes of winning the division for a sixth consecutive season would be alive, if not totally well. Currently given only an 11-percent chance to catch - and pass - New England, that would improve to 24 percent with a win in Foxboro.

MORE: 3 keys to Bills getting revenge on Patriots in Week 15 AFC East showdown

Feel free to be greedy, Bills Mafia. But let's also be realistic.

Updating Bills' first-round opponent:

Steelers - 45%
Jags - 25%
Ravens - 11%
Texans - 10%
Pats - 5%
Bye - 4%

— Kevin Massare (@KevinMassare) December 9, 2025

Hard to believe the 11-2 Pats, even after a loss to the Bills, would lose two of their last three to teams with losing records: Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.

If you're playing the percentages, right now the Bills are headed for a Wild Card Weekend game against the AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers. From what we witnessed two weeks ago in a convincing Bills' victory, bring it on.

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Entering Sunday, the Steelers are the most-likely first-round playoff opponent at 45 percent. For this to happen, the Bills would need to finish as the top Wild Card (seeded fifth) and the Steelers would have to hang on to win the North as the AFC's division winner with the worst record (seeded fourth).

Other opponents still on the table for the Bills: Jacksonville Jaguars (25%), Baltimore Ravens (11%), Houston Texans (10%), Patriots (5%). The Bills could still run the table, finish 13-4 and steal the No. 1 seed, but getting a bye in that scenario has only a 4-percent chance.

MORE: Bye-bye boogeyman: QB ghosts of Bills' playoff failures likely missing postseason

The best bet at this point: The Bills will likely be on the road in the Wild Card against a team it has already faced this season.

James Cook | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

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