SI game prediction doubts Josh Allen's ability to push Bills past Patriots in Week 15

The Buffalo Bills' five-year run as AFC East champions will officially end with a loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday

Dec 7, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is pressured by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Joseph Ossai (58) | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The AFC East title is on the line, and the reigning NFL MVP will have his chance to say something about it when the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on December 14.

The Bills (9-4) will attempt to avenge a Week 5 loss to the Patriots (11-2) while vaulting themselves right back into serious contention for a sixth consecutive division crown.

If Buffalo is able to post a road win over MVP hopeful Drake Maye and the Patriots, who are riding a 10-game win streak, it won't be because of the patented Allen heroics that transpired in last Sunday's 39-34 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. At least that's what Sports Illustrated national writer Matthew Verderame suggests.

MORE: Josh Allen's 'Madden' level TD production results in another historical first

Offering specific matchup analysis and score predictions for five meaningful Week 15 games, Verderame honed in on "James Cook vs. New England’s front seven."

"If the Bills are going to split the season series and keep faint hope alive for an AFC East title, they’ll need James Cook to run wild," said Verderame.

Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs with the ball against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Selling Allen short

Yes, it's true that Cook is having a remarkable 2025 season, his third consecutive 1,000-yard rushing campaign. He's only 48 yards behind NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor, but the claim that the Bills' lone path to beating the Patriots runs through Cook is strange to say the least.

To think that Allen can't win through the air is somewhat naive. He's second amongst AFC leaders in touchdown passes (22) and yards per pass (8.2).

Oct 5, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) calls out signals prior to the snap against the New England Patriots during the first half at Highmark Stadium. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Not to mention, it's not like the Patriots have some new reiteration of a no-fly zone. They rank 14th overall in passing defense (206.9). Furthermore, their sack percentage (6.43) is 22nd best on the circuit, and Allen only becomes more dangerous with more time to throw.

Score prediction

The SI scribe has the Patriots prevailing, 27-22, over the Bills.

MORE: Patriots' Drake Maye salivating at ending Bills' AFC East dynasty

"In the first meeting between these two teams, the Bills lost 23–20 in Week 5 largely because they committed three turnovers and 11 penalties. On that night, Cook rushed for 49 yards and 3.3 yards per carry, kept in check by a swarming New England defense that ranks ninth-best in EPA per rush against (-0.08). ... If Buffalo can run the ball, it’ll be in terrific shape. But if the Patriots, off their bye week, can bottle up Cook once more and limit Allen, they’ll be division champion." — Matthew Verderame

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