NFL expert panel backs Bills on Monday Night Football, but not unanimously

The Buffalo Bills look to rebound from a Week 5 loss by moving to 5-1 overall in a primetime affair against NFC South opponent

Dec 29, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver (91) celebrates a sack against the New York Jets in the third quarter | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Other than one outlier, Sports Illustrated's weekly NFL prediction panel is backing the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6.

Coming off a three-point primetime home loss to the New England Patriots, the Bills (4-1) visit the upstart Atlanta Falcons (2-2) on October 13. Buffalo has not lost back-to-back games since falling on the road to the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans in Weeks 4 and 5 last year.

It'll be only the second road game in six weeks for the Bills, who covered the point spread in their first away game — a 30-10 win over the New York Jets in Week 2. Buffalo enters as a 4.5-point road favorite over the Falcons.

Six of seven Sports Illustrated experts are siding with the Bills to post a Week 6 victory. Only national writer Gilberto Manzano projected a win for the Falcons. Manzano is the same scribe who ranked Buffalo behind the Los Angeles Chargers when both teams were 3-0 in Week 4.

As always, the SI picks are straight up.

The concern surrounding the Bills in Week 6 is the defense's ability to neutralize running back Bijan Robinson and the Falcons' rushing attack. Robinson averages 4.9 yards per carry.

Sep 14, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball during the second half against the Minnesota Vikings | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

"They're explosive on offense," said Bills' head coach Sean McDermott previewing the matchup on WGR's The Extra Point Show. "Multiple first round picks offensively and then certainly talented defensively rushing the passer. Offensively, Bijan, the quarterback [Michael] Penix, and Drake London and what he can do. And so they can be in a lot of different ways and become explosive very quickly."

RELATED: Damar Hamlin's move to IR creates Bills' need for 34-year-old practice squad player

The Bills' defense will be without linebacker Matt Milano, but will welcome back defensive tackle Ed Oliver from a four-game absence.

When it comes to Buffalo's offense, quarterback Josh Allen and Co. will face the NFL's top-ranked pass defense (135.0).

MMQB Week 6 Game Picks
(Bills at Falcons)

Albert Breer, senior reporter
Pick: Bills

Claire Brennan, associate editor
Pick: Bills

Conor Orr, senior writer
Pick: Bills

Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Pick: Falcons

Matt Verderame, staff writer
Pick: Bills

John Pluym, managing editor
Pick: Bills

Mitch Goldich, senior editor
Pick: Bills

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks at running back James Cook as he launches a short pass to him during second half action of the Bills home game against the New Orleans Saints in Orchard Park on Sept. 28, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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