Why the Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't waste a draft pick on a running back
We are now just one day away from the 2020 NFL Draft, the first major sporting event in more than a month, and something all sports fans desperately need. While the draft won’t be as special as usual, with Roger Goodell avoiding the boos while announcing the picks from his basement, it is still one of the most anticipated sporting events every year.
Recently, there has been plenty of discussion about what positions the Chiefs will address with their first pick. The position that is beginning to get the most talk is running back. Many mock drafts are giving the Chiefs a running back with the 32nd pick, including Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor and Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins. All of these players are talented athletes and good at what they do, but picking a running back at 32 is the worst thing the Chiefs can do — barring a last-minute decision to draft a kicker, punter or long-snapper.
But it’s not just pick No. 32 that Brett Veach should avoid using to address running back. Veach should avoid it with any of the Chiefs picks as currently constituted. Let’s run through the reasons why taking a running back with any of the picks would be a poor move.
Reason #1: The value of running backs
There once was a time running backs were looked at as one of the most valuable positions in the game of football. Whether or not it was true back then, which is questionable, it certainly is not true today.
Many new studies have proven that running back is one of the least-valuable positions in all of football and has little correlation to winning percentage. From what we can deduce, running backs are less responsible for their own success than the blocking, scheme and defenders in the box. Even the most popular retorts from running back advocates have been debunked, as it has been proven that rushing success does not improve play action and running backs that are good receivers still bring far less value in the receiving game than wide receivers and tight ends do. Putting valuable resources towards running back rather than quarterback, wide receiver, cornerback, safety, tight end, offensive tackle, a premium pass-rusher, etc. would be a waste and this is true for all 32 teams, not just the Chiefs.
Reason #2: Greater team needs
While Damien Williams does not produce consistently enough for many Chiefs fans to appreciate him, what he gives to the running back position is better than what is currently at linebacker, outside cornerback, center, guard and edge defender (outside of Frank Clark).
The Chiefs linebacker group, led by Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson and Ben Niemann, remains one of the worst in the NFL and it has been since Derrick Johnson’s release following the 2017 season. Numerous prospects at the position show the potential to be the team’s best linebacker in their rookie season, such as LSU’s Patrick Queen, Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray, Wisconsin’s Zack Baun, Appalachian State’s Akeem Davis-Gaither, Mississippi State’s Willie Gay Jr., Wyoming’s Logan Wilson and Texas Tech’s Jordyn Brooks.
Cornerback, which we have established is the most important defensive position, also has a questionable future. Both outside cornerback starters, Charvarius Ward (RFA) and Bashaud Breeland (UFA), will be free agents after the 2020 season. Rashad Fenton, who showed promise in limited action last season, is the only cornerback currently on the books for Kansas City in 2021. With the position being so important, it will have to be addressed with a high draft pick in the first two days of the draft. Prospects to watch here include Utah’s Jaylon Johnson, Virginia’s Bryce Hall, TCU’s Jeff Gladney, Alabama’s Trevon Diggs, Clemson’s A.J. Terrell, Auburn’s Noah Igbinoghene and Mississippi State’s Cameron Dantzler.
Center and guard are two of the least-valuable positions in football, but both remain more valuable than running back and are currently worse off with the loss of Stefen Wisniewski. The current group consists of Austin Reiter, Andrew Wylie, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Martinas Rankin and Nick Allegretti. This isn’t a deathblow to the Chiefs offense by any means, but it is not where you would like to see this position. High-quality prospects at the positions include Michigan center Cesar Ruiz, Fresno State guard Netane Muti, Temple center Matt Hennessy, Washington center Nick Harris, Wisconsin center Tyler Biadasz and Louisiana guard Robert Hunt.
Lastly, we have edge defender. Frank Clark is a major chess piece, with some incredible highlights, a relentless motor and great leadership. However, outside of Clark, the edge defender position is murky at best. Emmanuel Ogbah is no longer on the roster after signing a two-year, $15 million deal with the Miami Dolphins, and the remaining edge defenders, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Alex Okafor, Breeland Speaks and Tim Ward, have not proven to be starter-quality edge defenders as members of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs went for an edge defender, look out for Iowa’s A.J. Epenesa, Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos, Notre Dame’s Julian Okwara, Michigan’s Josh Uche, Utah’s Bradlee Anae, Charlotte’s Alex Highsmith, Notre Dame’s Khalid Kareem and Tulsa’s Trevis Gipson.
Reason #3: Limited draft capital
The Chiefs do not have a sixth or seventh-round pick in this draft. The sixth-round pick was traded to the Jets for Darron Lee and the seventh-round pick was traded to the Dolphins for Jordan Lucas. As a result, the Chiefs have five draft picks, which is tied with the Saints for the fewest picks in the draft. This limited draft capital makes drafting a running back that much worse of an idea.
Reason #4: Undrafted free agents
There is something unique to the running back position that we do not see with other positions consistently: Good prospects going undrafted every year.
Active undrafted running backs include six of the top 40 running backs in 2019 total rushing yards (Phillip Lindsay, Raheem Mostert, Gus Edwards, Matt Breida, Austin Ekeler and Damien Williams), three of the top five running backs in yards per carry with 100+ rushing attempts (Mostert had 5.6 YPC with 137 carries, Edwards had 5.3 YPC with 133 carries and Breida had 5.1 YPC with 123 carries) and three of the top nine running backs in 2019 PFF Elusive Rating (Williams was 4th, Ekeler was 8th and Mostert was 9th).
Ekeler added 993 receiving yards, 12 short of Christian McCaffrey for the most among RBs in 2019, and eight receiving touchdowns, which doubled McCaffrey’s total. This brought Ekeler up to 1,550 total yards in 2019, 109 more than Saquon Barkley’s 2019 total despite having 45 fewer touches than Barkley.
Lindsay now has two 1,000+ rushing yard seasons in his first two seasons with the Denver Broncos, with a career yards per carry tally of 4.9 and 17 total touchdowns. On top of that, Lindsay has been one of the most reliable ball-carriers in the NFL since 2018, having zero career fumbles.
Mostert and Williams put up big numbers in the postseason, combining for 634 yards, 5.6 yards per touch and 11 touchdowns in six games. Mostert and Williams ended up meeting in Super Bowl LIV, where they combined for 193 yards and three touchdowns.
Other talented running backs to go late in the draft or undrafted include Chris Carson (pick 249, 1,230 rushing yards, the sixth-most in 2019), Aaron Jones (pick 182, 1,707 total yards in 2019), Jalen Richard (undrafted, one of the best receiving RBs in the NFL) and Latavius Murray (pick 181, 42 career touchdowns).
Reason #5: Darwin Thompson
There is much concern about the Chiefs’ running back position, especially for 2021 and beyond. Damien Williams will be a free agent heading into his age-29 season and DeAndre Washington and Darrel Williams will also enter free agency. The only running back currently signed with the Chiefs through 2021 is 2019 sixth-round pick Darwin Thompson. However, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Thompson is the running back to run with in 2021.
Thompson was a star in his junior season at Utah State, showing excellent contact balance and a desire to fight for as many yards as possible. He gained 1,413 yards, 8.1 yards per touch and 16 touchdowns in his only season at Utah State. He also led all of college football in PFF Elusive Rating with a 176.6 rating, with 61 avoided tackles and 5.07 yards after contact per attempt.
Thompson also showed flashes of this in the 2019 preseason with the Chiefs, gaining 96 yards, 6.5 yards per touch, five first downs and a touchdown in his 15 touches. Thompson was relentless and showed that same great contact balance against NFL competition, racking up six avoided tackles and 3.08 yards after contact per attempt. This led to Thompson becoming one of fantasy football’s top sleeper picks.
Unfortunately for Thompson, he was not given many chances in the regular season. The 5-foot-8, 201-pound back had a carry in ten games with just one carry in four of them. In Thompson’s three most active games, he showed he could perform if given the chance. In Weeks 13-15, the three games he had eight or more touches, he gained 126 yards, seven first downs and a touchdown in his 28 touches. Additionally, Thompson avoided five tackles and had 2.87 yards after contact per attempt. If nothing more, Thompson has shown with his ability to fight for yards and avoid tackles that he has the ability to be a starting-caliber NFL running back. He just needs to be given the chance to prove it isn’t a fluke.
Whether you believe running backs still have their value in the NFL or not, it should be clear the Chiefs need to stay away from the running back position this weekend. There are several more pressing needs at more valuable positions, and the likelihood they can get a talented young running back without having to use draft capital is much higher than it is with any other position. If Brett Veach is keeping an eye on the analytics of the sport, he knows this too. Merry Draftsmas!
The referenced Pro Football Focus stats are a part of PFF Premium Stats, which comes with a PFF Elite subscription. Go to join.pff.com for more.
