Dot-Connecting Links Cowboys to Shocking Potential Pick at No. 12 in 2026 NFL Draft

Based on dot-connecting and intel from Daniel Jeremiah, the Dallas Cowboys could make a shocking pick at No. 12 in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Dallas Cowboys logo at the NFL Draft. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

If we told you the Dallas Cowboys had taken a safety with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, you would almost certainly says it's Ohio State safety Caleb Downs.

But one draft analyst thinks the Cowboys, who do have a need at the position, could take a safety not named Downs with their first of two first-round picks, which, on the surface, would be surprising, to say the least.

That draft analyst is NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah and, thanks to a little dot-connecting, he believes Dallas could take Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman at No. 12 overall.

The dot-connecting involves Jeremiah linking former Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi, who is a big fan of the Ducks safety and coached him at Oregon last season, to Cowboys defensive backs coach, Derrick Ansley.

"The Cowboys have a glaring need in the secondary and it's the safety position," Jeremiah said on The Joel Klatt Show. "I think Thieneman could be the 12th pick in the draft."

"Tosh Lupoi, who we've just established loves Thieneman, along his journey, where was he at? He was at Alabama. He was there from 2014 all the way to 2018," Jeremiah continued. "He was the co-DC in 2017. You know who was coaching in that secondary? It was Derrick Ansley. You know who coaches DBs for the Dallas Cowboys right now? Derrick Ansley. That's why I've been saying I think Thieneman could be the 12th pick in the draft."

Dillon Thieneman over Caleb Downs?

Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. | Clark Wade/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jeremiah then revealed something even more explosive: some teams actually have Thieneman ranked ahead of Downs. He did not know if the Cowboys were one of them, though.

"I'll tell you for a fact, I know some teams have it that way," he said of Thieneman over Downs. "I don't... I'm telling you some teams have it that way. And I'm not saying (the Cowboys) do and I would, in that scenario (with Downs and Thieneman on the board at No. 12), I would have (Dallas) taking Downs."

This is the first time throughout the pre-draft process there has been even a shred of information putting any safety ahead of Downs, who is widely viewed as one of the draft's best players, regardless of position.

Even with this interesting nugget from Jeremiah, we'd be shocked to see Thieneman go over Downs on April 23. That said, there is a real possibility both could go in the nine to 12 range, Jeremiah said.

A shocking but logical potential pick

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

At the start of the pre-draft process, if you had told a Cowboys fan their team would be taking Thieneman with the No. 12 pick, they would have no doubt laughed in your face.

That's for many reasons. Nobody had Thieneman on their radar this high and Downs was believed to be the only safety worthy of being selected in Dallas' top spot. Furthermore, in what is a fairly deep class for edge rushers and cornerbacks, two positions the Cowboys need to address, grabbing one of those players was far more likely.

My, how quickly things have changed.

Putting aside where the Cowboys actually draft him, Thieneman does make sense for Dallas because of the need at safety.

Sure, the signings of PJ Locke and Jalen Thompson were fine, but the Cowboys are still lacking a locked-in, long-term starter at the position and Thieneman has the goods to be that guy after three years as a starter in college.

Along with his elite football instincts, IQ and toughness, the Oregon product has the athleticism to go with it. Thieneman's meteoric rise really began at the NFL Scouting Combine, where he posted a 4.35 40-yard dash and 41-inch vertical leap. He also offers versatility in spades, with Thieneman being able to play either safety spot and in the slot.

Thieneman's meteoric rise

Oregon defensive back Dillon Thieneman. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It has been quite a successful pre-draft process for Thieneman, who was once viewed as a second-round pick before building his stock up to a first-rounder, ESPN's Jeff Legwold reported.

"There are a few players in every draft with an extensive enough body of work to make league evaluators comfortable. Then there are the players who shake things up a bit at the Senior Bowl or the combine, forcing evaluators to take another look. Thieneman fits into the latter bucket and has likely moved from a mid-to-late Day 2 pick into the first round as part of a sturdy safety class," he said.

Legwold's ESPN colleague and draft analyst Matt Miller didn't have a first-round grade on Thieneman early this month and he is now sitting at No. 17 on Miller's draft board and he believes Thieneman could be a top-20 pick.

After witnessing Thieneman's meteoric rise and Jeremiah's comments, we can no longer be totally shocked if he's the Cowboys' first pick on opening night.