ESPN Views Cowboys as Fringe Playoff Team Despite Defensive Overhaul

ESPN's Football Power Index has the Dallas Cowboys barely making the playoffs in 2026, and it's understandable why.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Dallas Cowboys have overhauled their defense ahead of the 2026 campaign and that has given fans hope for a return to the postseason.

However, ESPN is barely on board with the Cowboys being a playoff team in 2026. Seth Walder crunched the numbers for ESPN's Football Power Index for this coming season and the Cowboys rank 11th in the NFL.

"FPI's preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers," Walder explains. "We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections."

The Cowboys sport the fourth-toughest schedule in the league based on win totals for their opponents from Vegas oddsmakers, so that certainly didn't help their ranking. Even still this is a solid placement for Dallas.

Cowboys viewed as fringe playoff team

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Dallas is ranked behind six NFC teams, and with there being seven playoff teams in each conference, that leaves Dallas as a fringe postseason team in the eyes of ESPN's FPI.

The six NFC teams ahead of Dallas in the FPI rankings are the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.

ESPN's Football Power Index is out!

The Rams are No. 1, the Seahawks are No. 4 and the Patriots are...No. 14!

Projections, most likely Super Bowl matchups and more in today's story: https://t.co/a3gvnREcZ3 pic.twitter.com/cUwrQBBGkw

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) June 3, 2026

The Cowboys landing behind the Eagles also means ESPN's FPI thinks Dallas is likely to finish in second place in the NFC East. The Washington Commanders and New York Giants ranked 21st and 23rd, respectively.

When it comes to Super Bowl odds, the Cowboys are given a 2.6% chance to win the Big Game, which ranks 16th. Dallas was not included in the top 10 of the most likely Super Bowl matchups.

Why Cowboys aren't ranked higher

Dallas Cowboys cornerback Caleb Downs and defensive coordinator Christian Parker. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The No. 11 ranking is a solid one considering the circumstances.

Everyone expects the Cowboys to have one of the better offenses in the NFL in 2026, but as we saw in 2025, that does not guarantee a playoff berth.

Assuming the Cowboys' offense is good once again this coming season, the difference for Dallas will be its defense.

The Cowboys sported one of the worst in the NFL last season, and while the additions this offseason were certainly welcomed, we still have to see how the pieces fit before knowing the results.

If the Cowboys can improve to even just an average defense while sporting a top-notch offense, they should make the playoffs. If the unit becomes elite, then contending for a Super Bowl becomes a possibility.

However, if Dallas is anywhere near as bad as it was on defense in 2025, it's likely going to result in yet another disappointing finish and a third consecutive year without the playoffs.