Cowboys strength of schedule leads to bleak win total projection

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 7-11 campaign, but they can’t expect 2025 to be easier for them. Not only are they facing some major changes, including the switch to Brian Schottenheimer at head coach, but they also have one of the toughest strength of schedules to deal with.

Dallas didn’t finish with one of the five toughest NFL schedules this season, but according to Sharp Football Analysis, only 10 teams in the league face a more daunting task than the Cowboys.

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That’s left them with a bleak win projection of just 7.5. When compared to the rest of the NFC East, that has them third behind the Philadelphia Eagles (11.5) and Washington Commanders (9.5). Only the New York Giants have it worse, looking at a win total of 5.5 while facing the toughest schedule in the league.

New York Giants TE Theo Johnson is tackled by Dallas Cowboys S Israel Mukuamu , LB DeMarvion Overshown and CB DaRon Bland. | Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

How important is the strength of schedule? Well, Warren Sharp broke down the difference, saying only 20 percent of the teams with the 10 worst schedules made the playoffs.

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It was a polar opposite result for those with the softer schedule.

Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer during training camp at the River Ridge Playing Fields in Oxnard. | Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

”Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with the easiest schedule, 7 produced winning records, with 6 making the playoffs.” — Sharp

The good news for Dallas is that they’re right outside the top 10. Still, it’s going to be a tough road and as their win projection shows, they’re not going to be favorites to make a run.

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