REPORT: Is Trevor Lawrence's Contract Aging Poorly?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has undoubtedly had an interesting first few seasons in the league.

He has had multiple coaches and his fair share of ups and downs in just four years in the league, yet he has a nearly $300 million contract, despite having a losing record since entering the league.

His contract has rightfully brought critics out who feel his play does not match his pay.

Stacey Mickles of Pro Football Network analyzed the contracts of both star quarterbacks with the results each quarterback has produced since signing their respective contracts.

"Lawrence inked a five-year, $275 million deal with the Jaguars over the 2024 offseason, giving him an average annual value of $55 million. Lawrence’s deal includes $200 million in total guarantees," Mickles said.

"Since having a breakout season in 2022 and leading his team to the playoffs, Lawrence’s numbers have fallen off. This year alone through 10 games, he had thrown just 11 touchdowns and just a touch over 2,000 yards."

Mickles noted how far Lawrence's performance dropped off this season, as the veteran quarterback ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple categories. So far, Lawrence has not lived up to the massive contract he received.

"Through the first four years of his career, he has not posted a grade above a C+ for an entire season in PFN’s QB+ metric," Mickles said. "Lawrence’s QB+ grade has declined in each of the last two years. PFN’s QB+ metric assigns a letter grade to every quarterback performance and factors in several stats such as success rate when pressured, third-down conversion rate, pocket production, and clutch performance.

"This season, Lawrence ranked 31st of 39 qualified quarterbacks in PFN’s QB+ metric, earning a grade of 64.5 (D). He struggled when under pressure (ranking 33rd in the NFL) and struggled to convert third downs (37th in the NFL). Given his money, Jacksonville undoubtedly expected more from him.

"While Lawrence’s performance and deal are in a better place than Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s (44.3, F; five-year, $230 million contract), it may not be long until the two are discussed in a similar light.

Mickles fairly points out that Lawrence was riddled with injuries this season, which impacted his play. However, a player's injuries after receiving a big contract has always been taken into account both positively and negatively, when analyzing a player's production versus their pay.

"Another factor is injury," Mickles said. "Lawrence has missed eight of his last 19 games, including this season. In his career, He has suffered a concussion, an ankle sprain, and a shoulder sprain. But next year may be a crossroads situation for Lawrence’s career despite his large contract, and if he doesn’t step up, he might find fighting for a job sooner than initially expected.

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