Updating Potential Compensatory Draft Picks for Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The good news is the Green Bay Packers re-signed most of their key free agents.

The bad news is they won’t be awash in compensatory draft picks next year.

According to the projections at OverTheCap.com, the Packers are in line to get only one comp pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. That is a fifth-rounder for receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His three-year, $30 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs wasn’t quite enough to lift him into the fourth-round bracket. If he hits his catch-based incentives, he could move into fourth-round territory but that would require him greatly outperforming his history.

Valdes-Scantling was a fifth-round compensatory pick in 2018.

Green Bay lost two other starters in free agency, guard/center Lucas Patrick and cornerback Chandon Sullivan. Patrick’s contract qualified for a sixth-round pick, according to OTC, but was canceled out by the addition of defensive tackle Jarran Reed. Sullivan’s one-year, $1.75 million contract wasn’t enough to qualify for even a seventh-rounder.

The Packers re-signed linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, cornerback Rasul Douglas and tight end Robert Tonyan. No doubt general manager Brian Gutekunst is thrilled to have players over draft picks in these cases.

Campbell’s contract also is worth $10 million per season, though OTC's Nick Korte figured Campbell would have netted a fourth-round compensatory pick based on playing time. Either way, the Packers essentially swapped out a Day 3 compensatory pick to keep the services of an All-Pro linebacker.

Douglas, who saved the Packers’ season with a series of clutch interceptions, returned on a three-year deal worth $7 million per season that would have put him on the fifth-round/sixth-round border.

Tonyan’s one-year deal is worth $3.75 million, which would have put him in the seventh-round bracket.

Gutekunst no doubt also is happy to have signed Reed – a reliable, three-down performer on the defensive line – at the expense of the sixth-round pick the Packers might have gained for losing Patrick to the rival Bears.

Green Bay Packers Unrestricted Free Agents

Here is a look at the Green Bay Packers' unrestricted free agents, most of whom are under contract.

Unsigned: RT Dennis Kelly

There’s some uncertainty on the offensive line following the release of starting right tackle Billy Turner and the free-agent departure of guard/center Lucas Patrick. Having invested six draft picks on the line the past two years, Green Bay has built some depth.

The Packers could start the season with left tackle David Bakhtiari, left guard Jon Runyan, center Josh Myers, right guard Royce Newman and right tackle Yosh Nijman. At some point, former Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins will return to supplement the group. Until that happens, the Packers have an obvious need for tackle depth.

The 32-year-old Kelly signed with Green Bay just before the start of training camp last summer. While he struggled against the 49ers’ Nick Bosa in the playoff loss, he performed well enough in four regular-season starts that he could challenge Nijman for the starting job. Either way, having Bakhtiari, Nijman and Kelly would take the pressure off general manager Brian Gutekunst to spend a premium pick on a tackle.

Unsigned: DT Tyler Lancaster

Gutekunst made a splash in free agency this week by signing veteran defensive tackle Jarran Reed to a one-year contract. Other than the start of the 2019 season, when he was suspended, Reed has started all but one game the past five seasons. He’s not a great run defender and he’s not a great pass rusher but he’s a three-down player capable of devouring a large quantity of snaps.

With that, the Packers have a starting trio of Pro Bowler Kenny Clark, Reed and veteran Dean Lowry. TJ Slaton, who showed some promise in about 15 snaps per game as a rookie fifth-round pick, could provide some high-quality depth should he take a step forward in Year 2. The only other player under contract is Jack Heflin, who made the team but hardly played as an undrafted rookie last year.

The Packers could use one more player on the defensive line. They could go younger and cheaper (and perhaps better) than Lancaster with a draft pick. With seven selections in the first four rounds, they should be in position to draft a quality prospect. If not, they could circle back after the draft to Lancaster, who’s generally delivered strong run defense in his first four seasons.

Unsigned: OLB Whitney Mercilus

The Packers have absolutely no depth at outside linebacker behind the starting tandem of Preston Smith and Rashan Gary. Perhaps Jonathan Garvin or Tipa Galeai will take a step forward in 2022 but that seems more like wishing and hoping than a realistic expectation.

The lack of depth is why the Packers pounced when the Texans released Mercilus last season. In six games in Houston, he had two sacks and five pressures in 110 opportunities. In his first four games in Green Bay, he had one sack and 10 pressures in 80 pass-rushing snaps before he sustained a torn biceps in Week 10 against Seattle and missed the rest of the regular season.

Mercilus’ small sample size in Green Bay shows he can still play. He’ll turn 32 before the start of training camp. Chances are the Packers will look to the draft first and then revisit the veteran market if they come up empty.

Unsigned: CB Kevin King

Coming off a nightmarish NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay, King returned to the Packers last offseason on a one-year, $5 million contract. The Packers gave him a $3.75 million bonus, which they prorated over a total of five years with the addition of four void years. When the Packers didn’t sign him to a new deal by a February deadline, all the leftover cap proration - $3 million – was dumped onto Green Bay’s 2022 cap as dead money.

So, if the Packers wanted to keep King, the time was then, not now.

It is easy to see why the Packers might not want him back. King played in 10 games with six starts last season. That, of course, means he missed seven games. In five seasons, he missed 30 of a possible 81 games due to the world’s longest list of injuries.

The Packers have a potentially elite cornerback trio with Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes. But, with Chandon Sullivan signing with the Vikings in free agency, the Packers have no proven depth. Shemar Jean-Charles, a fifth-round pick last year, didn’t have a good training camp and barely played as a rookie. On Friday, they signed Keisean Nixon, who is known mostly for his history with Snoop Dogg and his play on special teams.

Here are the rest of Green Bay’s unrestricted free agents.