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Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Justin Jefferson, Vikings

In Part 2 of our weekly series, here are three reasons why the Packers are going to lose their Week 1 showdown at Minnesota.
Bill Huber|
Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass in front of Green Bay Packers defensive backJaylin Simpson.
Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass in front of Green Bay Packers defensive backJaylin Simpson. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – During Matt LaFleur’s tenure as Green Bay Packers coach, they’ve kicked off the season at home only once. Meanwhile, Sunday’s game will mark the third opener played at the Minnesota Vikings.

When Minnesota rolled in Week 1 in 2022, it marked the beginning of the end of Green Bay’s dominance of the NFC North. The Packers missed the playoffs that year and haven’t won the division since.

Here are three reasons why this season will start off on the wrong foot, as well.

No. 1 Vikings Receivers vs. Packers Pass Rush

Let’s roll two potential mismatches into one big potential mismatch.

First, can the Packers get any pressure on Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray? This is sort of an evergreen question until Micah Parsons returns sometime next month.

The four edge rushers on Green Bay’s roster are Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Brenton Cox and Dani Dennis-Sutton. Combined, they had four sacks in the NFL last season. Of course, that’s a bit of a skewed stat. Van Ness missed half the season with an injured foot, Sorrell was a rookie buried on the depth chart at times, Cox missed most of the season with a groin injury and Dennis-Sutton was in college.

Still, facts are facts. Van Ness has 8.5 sacks in three seasons. Sorrell had six sacks in 16 games as a senior at Texas. Cox has five sacks in 15 career games in the NFL.

Just because the Packers’ edge rushers haven’t sacked the quarterback doesn’t mean they can’t. It doesn’t mean they will, either. Especially against Minnesota’s bookend tackles, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. They each gave up only two sacks last season; Darrisaw’s both came against Parsons last year.

If the Packers can’t get to Murray, it could be a long, long day. Of 41 quarterbacks with 67 under-pressure dropbacks (Murray’s number), he ranked 10th in clean-pocket completion percentage (73.8).

That, of course, was in Arizona, where the Cardinals were terrible. With Minnesota, he will be throwing passes to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings. They are as good as it gets as a trio. With Sam Darnold in 2024, Jefferson caught 103 passes for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns and Addison caught 63 passes for 875 yards and nine touchdowns. Jennings with the 49ers last year caught 55 passes for 643 yards and nine touchdowns.

That’s a lot of firepower for Murray to exploit against Keisean Nixon, rookie Brandon Cisse and nickel Javon Bullard.

“That’s a tough group,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s one of the better ones in the National Football League, I would say. So, about we’re about to find out, but I feel great about our guys. I mean, I think they’ve had a solid training camp, just adapting to some new techniques and a new scheme. I feel like they’ve continued to get better each and every day.”

In 11 games against the Packers, Jefferson has six games of six-plus catches. In his five games of 85-plus yards, the Vikings are 5-0.

“You feel the hatred within once you’re in the middle of it, and you get here, and you see how much Minnesota hates the Packers and the Packers hate Minnesota,” Jefferson said on the Ringer Wise Guys podcast.

“So, it’s just within it – just like at LSU, we hate Alabama. It’s just a part of the rivalry, a part of the school. It is what it is. It’s just that it’s been like that. They’ve been doing that for years, years before I was thought of.”

No. 2: Packers’ Questionable Run Game

Can the Packers run the football?

That’s a three-pronged question.

One is the obvious. What do the Packers have in the backfield without Josh Jacobs? MarShawn Lloyd hasn’t played in a game in almost two calendar years. Chris Brooks has only one game of 10-plus carries in three seasons. Kaleb Johnson, who was acquired two weeks ago, is coming off a horrendous rookie season with the Steelers.

Two is the offensive line. There are questions at literally every spot. New starting left tackle Jordan Morgan has started one game at that position. Left guard Aaron Banks is battling knee tendinitis. Right guard Jacob Monk has started one game in his career. Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele has been limited following last year’s knee injury.

Really, the only piece of certainty is Sean Rhyan, who has made eight career starts at center.

“We’re going to go out there with the best five and f***ing give them hell. You know what I mean?” Rhyan said. “So, Week 1, it’s early on in the season, you’re working out the wrinkles and all that, getting ready for mid- to postseason. But we’re going to go out there and f***ing give it our all, no matter who’s out there.”

The Vikings finished eighth in the NFL last season with 3.99 yards allowed per carry. Linebacker Blake Cashman had 144 tackles and former Packers linebacker Eric Wilson had 108 tackles, 17 tackles for losses and three forced fumbles.

Running the football will be critical, even if Lloyd and Co. are only getting 3 or 4 yards per attempt. Obviously, third-and-long is a tricky proposition against Brian Flores’ defense. Minnesota finished last season ranked fourth in third-down defense and second in sack percentage.

On third-and-long (third-and-6-plus), the Vikings’ defense trailed only Green Bay with an opponent conversion rate of just 19.7 percent.

No. 3: Vikings Limiting Packers TE Tucker Kraft

The Packers signed tight end Tucker Kraft to a contract extension – an A-plus move on the eve of the regular season. He was on his way to a prodigious season before last year’s torn ACL.

“I’m excited to get back to Minnesota because, for me, it’s kind of like a home game,” he said. “That’s a short drive for a lot of my personal fans and followers and family. Just getting an opportunity to play in an atmosphere like that – the Bank’s a real fun place to play in.

“I remember my rookie year, really soaked it all in there for the first time. They’re doing the Skol, and Kirk (Cousins is) up there with his shirt off with his kid banging the drum and I’m out there on kickoff return (looks around), they’ve got the indoor fireworks and the lights, everything’s blinking. It’s a very exciting atmosphere there, and I’ve really just been looking forward to an opportunity to finally hit some other people.”

Kraft is going to be ready to rumble but the Vikings will pose a major challenge. Last season, the Vikings against tight ends allowed the sixth-fewest catches (75), fifth-fewest yards (719) and the ninth-fewest touchdowns (six).

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.