Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Eagles in Wild-Card Playoff Game

The Green Bay Packers have lost two consecutive games while the Philadelphia Eagles have won 12 of their last 13. Nonetheless, here are three reasons why the Packers will pull off the wild-card upset.

Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (95) celebrates after recovering a fumble against the Philadelphia Eagles. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers went on the road and beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a wild-card game in 2010 to kick-start their drive to a Super Bowl championship.

Can history repeat itself?

Here are three reasons why the underdog Packers will beat the Eagles in Sunday’s NFC wild-card showdown.

1. Packers’ Run Defense vs. Saquon Barkley

Chances are the winner of this matchup will be the winner of the game.

Barkley had a historic season. He ran away with the NFL rushing title, pun intended, with 2,005 rushing yards. He topped 100 yards in 11 of his 16 games, including against Green Bay in Week 1, when he carried 24 times for 109 yards and two touchdowns and added two catches for 23 yards and another touchdown in the Eagles’ 34-29 win.

Really, the Packers did a good job against Barkley for most of the game, with a 34-yard run to end the third quarter being his one really big run.

From 2019 through 2023, the first five seasons of coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure, the Packers were last in the NFL with 4.66 yards allowed per carry. This year, under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, they finished third with 3.96 yards allowed per carry.

“It will be a challenge, but it’s one that I know our guys are up for and they’re looking forward to,” Hafley said. “They feel, when they watch the tape, that we’ve improved. We’ve improved in our run defense. They’re excited for the challenge.”

The game will start in the trenches. According to Sports Info Solutions, Barkley rushed for 1,018 yards before contact. That’s a lot of easy yards, thanks in part to an offensive line in which all five starters received All-Pro votes, including four of the five getting first-place votes.

Green Bay’s defensive front and linebackers will have to bring it, just like they have for most of the season. The Packers finished seventh with 99.7 rushing yards allowed per game. They allowed about 500 fewer rushing yards than last year and almost 700 fewer than in 2022.

“Just the physicality, the way guys are just running downhill,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “We truly care about it. And it's everybody's job, and I think that helps. It's not only just the D-line and linebackers. We got the nickels, the safeties coming up in the run and setting edges and all that kind of stuff.

“It’s definitely been the most detailed that we've been playing the run.”

2. Packers’ Big-Play Defense

The Packers finished sixth in points allowed and fifth in total defense this year. They hadn’t finished in the top 10 in both categories in the same season since 2010.

That season turned out OK.

One key for the Packers has been taking away big plays and forcing opponents to move the ball one first down at a time.

The Packers allowed only one play of 40-plus yards this season. That was A.J. Brown’s long catch-and-run touchdown against Jaire Alexander in Week 1.

That’s it.

No other team in the NFL has allowed less than six 40-yard plays. The league median is 10.

“We go out here and prepare hard. We practice hard. We’ve done it all year,” All-Pro safety Xavier McKinney explained. “When we have mess-ups, we try to re-do it. We go through it until we get it right. I think everybody on the defensive side of the ball has that mindset. And we just try to go out there and do all of our jobs individually to the best of our ability.”

The Eagles’ offense, on the other hand, finished second with 19 plays of 40-plus yards. Running back Saquon Barkley has a league-high seven 40-yard runs and quarterback Jalen Hurts is tied for sixth with 10 completions of 40-plus yards.

While Green Bay’s defense has taken away big plays, it’s created a bunch. It finished fourth with 31 takeaways and eighth with 45 sacks.

Yes, the Packers’ pass rush has run notoriously hot and cold, but the Eagles – despite their big-time offensive line and All-Pro offensive tackles – finished next-to-last in sack percentage allowed.

“They are doing an excellent job from a coaching-staff standpoint but also from a player standpoint of really finding their formula,” Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore told reporters at the start of the week. “Everyone is always trying to find formulas that work for them.

“They are doing excellent on third downs. They are keeping the ball in front of them. They are doing a really good job from that standpoint. They are doing some good stuff in the run game to kind of stress you a little bit. I think they found a really good formula. You can tell they are playing fast, they are playing confident. Their guys are all tied together. You don’t see a bunch of mistakes. You can feel it’s a really well-coached team.”

3. Playing With House Money

Before the Packers went outside for Friday’s practice, they went through their extensive pre-practice warm-up routine.

Players were loose, with plenty of dancing and goofing around. With the players gathered at the exit of the Don Hutson Center, coach Matt LaFleur did something rare. He walked over to the assembled reporters and asked if the “vibe” of the team seemed OK after back-to-back losses to the Vikings and Bears to close the regular season.

Yes, the vibe of the team was good.

“Now it’s a new season,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “We’re in the playoffs and now it’s time to refocus.”

The disappointment from stumbling into the playoffs was long gone. The opportunity that awaits in Philadelphia was on their mind.

“Yeah, it was a great week,” LaFleur said after Friday’s practice. “I think we’re excited about the opportunity, and it always starts with approaching it the right way. Obviously, you get to this time of the year, every game’s a great challenge, and it’s never easy going on the road.

“I think the things you are in control of – just the energy, the effort, it was all there. So, we’re excited about that and going to go embrace this challenge.”

The challenge is enormous. The Eagles went 14-3, with their only loss over the final 13 games coming when starting quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the opening minutes against the playoff-bound Commanders.

Saquon Barkley finished No. 1 in the NFL in rushing. The defense finished No. 1 in yards allowed. As a team, the Eagles finished second in point differential and yardage differential.

Put simply, they are a dominant team.

The expectations are through the roof. They blew a fourth-quarter lead in the Super Bowl two years ago against the Chiefs. Last year, they started 10-1 before the season imploded.

Not unlike LaFleur, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni needs to show he can win the big game.

Is it possible, the Packers – who are almost universally expected to lose – will come out with a nothing-to-lose mentality, just like they did last year at Dallas?

That’s the intention. With Philadelphia being outscored in the first quarter this year, it’s not a far-fetched scenario for Green Bay to jump on the Eagles from the start and really ratchet up the pressure.

“Offense, coming out and really just smacking them in the mouth right away,” tight end Tucker Kraft said. “We have to come out with intensity, juice, fire. We have to start fast.”

If that happens on Sunday, who knows what could happen.

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

The statistics (laid out in the story) show that #Packers rookie LB Edgerrin Cooper is a budding star.

He barely played against the Eagles in Week 1. “Just watching the film from me earlier this year, it’s like, ‘Ugh,’ what I was doing?’” ⬇️https://t.co/kSaNot578w

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) January 9, 2025

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