Five Bold Patriots Predictions for AFC Championship vs. Broncos

With a showdown against the Denver Broncos in the AFC championship game fast approaching, the New England Patriots are hoping to extend their first postseason run since 2021 into a spot in Super Bowl LX.

The Patriots enter this game having won 35 playoff games since team owner Robert Kraft bought the franchise in 1994. With a won this week, Kraft will join the Rooney family with 36 postseason wins and be one behind the 37 by the publicly-owned Green Bay Packers.

The 2025 Patriots have enjoyed one of the most improbable turnarounds in league history. The club improved from a 4-13 record in 2024 to a 14-3 record in 2025. They can become the 15th team to reach the Super Bowl a year after finishing with a losing season. The Patriots have done that two different times in their history, reaching the Super Bowl in 1996 after a 6-10 finish the year before and reaching the Super Bowl in 2001 a year after finishing with a 5-11 record.

In that vein, here are five bold predictions for this upcoming playoff matchup between two longstanding AFC rivals.

Drake Maye Goes Fumble Free

For all of the talk surrounding the Patriots' “easy” road through the postseason, Maye is about to become the first quarterback since 2015 to face a top-five total defense in each of his first three playoff games.

Despite an MVP-caliber performance in the regular-season, the Pats’ second-year phenom has had his share of struggles with ball security in the postseason. Throughout the past two games, he has fumbled the ball six times, losing three. He has also thrown two interceptions. In order to reverse that trend, Maye needs to get back to solid fundamentals. Fortunately for the Patriots, Maye will steer the ship back in the proper direction against Denver.

In order to have success against the Broncos’ preventive unit, Maye must not only protect the football, but also rid himself of it early — by either making the throw before the three-step, or by utilizing his athleticism on the ground. In doing so, he can help to mitigate the impact of both linebacker Nik Bonitto and defensive end Zach Allen, who excel in generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks. Most importantly, his adjustments will signal a concerted effort on Maye’s part to protect the football — one which will pay dividends for New England.

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) communicates in the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

TreVeyon Henderson Scores His First Postseason Touchdown … On a Catch-and-Run

Henderson is expected to draw his share of attention from Denver’s defense, and for good reason. The 23-year-old has showcased both the poise and prowess, which has made him one of the team’s most explosive weapons this season. Henderson’s exceptional breakaway speed and acceleration have separated him form his peers, thus far.

Still, Henderson has yet to make a significant impact in the postseason, compiling just 59 total scrimmage yards through New England’s first two games, The Ohio State product is at his best when operating out of Maye’s play-action. Should the Patriots wisely take a page from the Buffalo Bill’s playbook by using motions to draw a defender away from the rusher, Henderson could either break for notable yardage, or take a short pass from Maye to the house for a yards-after-the-catch score.

Kayshon Boutte Ensures Broncos CB Pat Surtain Remembers His Name

Amid the series of playful barbs being fired between the Pats and Broncos this week, Boutte expressed only his deepest respect for Denver cornerback Pat Surtain — an admiration which dates back to their college days.

As a freshman at LSU, Boutte caught eight passes for 111 yards against an Alabama Crimson Tide secondary which featured Surtain. The Pats’ receiver is hoping to put up a similar stat line during this conference championship contest.

Though getting the better of Surtain is a difficult task, Boutte is confident that he is up to the challenge — a point he will make in this game.

In his first two playoff games, the 23-year-old is not only solidifying his spot as one of Maye’s targets, he is becoming a bona fide NFL star. The former LSU Tiger has compiled an impressive seven catches for 141 yards and one touchdown on just nine targets. While his being matched against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is not guaranteed [Surtain could be placed on Stefon Diggs] Boutte will ensure that his standout showing in college brings back bitter memories on the pro gridiron.

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (9) catches the ball for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Patriots Defense Stymies Stidham with Pressure, Disguised Looks

Despite having played one snap this season — a kneeldown in October — Stidham will be the Broncos’ starting quarterback during this matchup at Empower Field at Mile High. The 29-year-old reserve will replace incumbent starter Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury during the team’s 33-30 win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. It should be noted that Stidham has not thrown a regular-season pass since 2023, when he started two games after Denver benched former starter Russell Wilson.

Though Stidham has the ability to impress with his arm strength, he has previously struggled with reading disguised coverages. As a result, expect the Patriots defense to keep the Broncos’ quarterback guessing with different pre-snap and post-snap looks — a strategy they have used regularly throughout the regular season and into the playoffs.

In keeping with their aggressive style, interim defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr is likely to increase man coverage, while applying pressure through the blitz. While mixing in just enough simulated pressures [cover zero] to keep him out of sorts, the Pats defense should find success in giving Stidham all he can handle and then some in this matchup.

Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Marcus Jones (25) returns a punt for a touchdown during the first quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Marcus Jones Sees Action in All Three Phases

Should New England approach this game with some early aggression, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may dip into his back of patented trickery for some quick yardage, and perhaps even an early score to put Denver’s defense on its heels. Jones could be the ideal candidate to earn triple-duty distinction. In addition to being an elite level punt returner, Jones is also quite the gadget weapon on offense. During his four-year tenure in New England, Jones has lined on 25 snaps on offense — catching all four of his targets with one going for a touchdown.

Of course, Jones will still make his deepest impact as New England’s primary slot cornerback. The former Houston Cougar aligned on 71 percent of New England’s snaps on defense. This season, he has compiled 65 total tackles, 11 pass deflections and three interceptions, one of which he returned for a score. In two playoff games, Jones has logged eight tackles, three passes-defensed and a touchdown-return against the Houston Texans in the divisional round. Still, do not be surprised if Jones turns in three stat lines against the Broncos in this clash for the AFC championship.

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