Encouraging Statistic Reveals Future Raider Mendoza's Improvement

When the Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock next Thursday with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, they will select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

Mendoza led the Hoosiers to their first-ever National Championship, winning every game in his only year in Bloomington and earning the Heisman Trophy along the way. Raider Nation hopes he can solve the quarterback issues that have plagued the team for years.

Mendoza transferred from California to Indiana, where he was an intriguing QB prospect but nowhere close to a No. 1 overall pick. Some numbers show there was a lot of room for improvement if Mendoza wanted to be a first-round pick.

He went to Indiana and got with coach Curt Cignetti, who took advantage of his physical tools and helped him improve at the quarterback position. Mendoza went from high-ceiling prospect to one of the better No. 1 overall picks in recent memory.

Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti and quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) after defeating the Miami Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

How Fernando Mendoza Improved

One statistic that shows how far Mendoza has come is a bit of a subjective one, but a convincing one nonetheless. According to Pro Football Focus, Mendoza's turnover-worthy play percentage decreased in Bloomington, while his 'big-time throw' percentage increased.

In 2024 at Cal, 3.5 percent of his throws were turnover-worthy plays. His big-time throw percentage sat at 2.9.

For context, big-time throws are high-difficulty passes graded on placement and timing, usually in pivotal moments. Mendoza wasn't making as many throws like that at Cal.

Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes in the fourth quarter during the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

A turnover-worthy play is a throw that has a higher likelihood of being intercepted or, if the QB does not secure the football, of leading to a fumble.

Everything changed when he got to Indiana. His BTT percentage increased to 5.7, while his TWP percentage dropped to 2.6.

Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) passes the ball against the Miami Hurricanes in the third quarter during the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Mendoza's Future With Raiders

Watching the College Football Playoff, you could see how many big throws Mendoza made to help the Hooisers win the national title. He made a fourth-down throw to Charlie Becker in the title game against Miami that helped Indiana move the chains and score another touchdown.

The Raiders should be enamored with the fact that Mendoza can make important throws and doesn't put the ball in harm's way. They have not had a quarterback like that in several years, and they hope Mendoza will be the engine that starts their offense.

Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

While many project that Mendoza will be a solid starter but may not be a star, these stats show he has the chance to make the throws that few quarterbacks can.

Sounds like a star.

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