Deep-dive metric reveals why Seahawks are clearly Super Bowl LX favorites

No doubt about it, the Seattle Seahawks are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX.

But more than wise-guy oddsmakers, subjectively silly power rankings or home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs, there is one telling statistic that shoves Seattle above all other teams. Stats geeks unite, because in this case the 12s will rejoice.

We'll try to keep this simple.

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The key defensive metric is Net Yards Per Play minus Net Yards Per Passing Attempt. Bottom line: it measures how defenses create negative plays and limit explosive plays. They achieve this through a consistent pass rush, stick coverage, minimal penalties and sure tackling.

The Athletic studied the stat and discovered that the 2025 Seahawks have the 15th-best "Net Yards Per Attempt" stat in the history of the NFL. The 14 teams above them all went to the Super Bowl or, before this era, or the NFL or AFL Championship Game.

There's one stat that matters above all others for assessing true strength: yards per pass play for minus YPP (NY/A) allowed. SEA is 15th best in Super Bowl Era. They are most likely by far to win the SB this year. #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/9oPP322KLD
— Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino) January 4, 2026

Writes The Athletic: "There's one stat that matters above all others for assessing true strength: yards per pass play minus YPP (NY/A) allowed. SEA is 15th best in Super Bowl Era. They are most likely by far to win the SB this year."

According to this metric, the 1991 Washington Redskins had one of the best defenses in league history. More recently, the 2019 and 2023 San Francisco 49ers rode the stat to Super Bowl appearances.

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Another sign of Seattle's dominance: They went 14-3 and produced a No. 1 ranking despite a turnover margin of -3. The Los Angeles Rams, for example, were +9. Turnover margin explains results. It doesn't predict them.

Leonard Williams | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

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