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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Standings, AI Forecast After Matchday 21
Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa squandered their chances to shake up the 2025–26 Premier League title race after all the three contenders dropped points on Matchday 21.
The Christmas season might be two weeks in the rearview, but the English top-flight is still delivering a flurry of matches and must-see drama well into the new year. Manchester United sacked Ruben Amorim just four days after Enzo Maresca left Chelsea, Bournemouth winger Antoine Semenyo is well on his way to Manchester City and the Premier League table is as congested as ever.
By the time the final whistles sounded across England on Wednesday evening, Man City, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham Hotspur all suffered disappointing results that saw them drop points against inferior opponents.
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The door was open, then, for Arsenal to take full control of the Premier League title race with a win over Liverpool on Thursday. Except the Gunners only managed a rather drab goalless draw with Arne Slot’s men, keeping the fight for the English crown closer than the current league leaders would like.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the final Premier League standings to look like following Matchday 21.
Supercomputer’s Predicted 2025–26 Premier League Table
Premier League Title Race
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 49 | 84.67 | 86.98 |
2. | Man City | 43 | 74.50 | 8.62 |
3. | Aston Villa | 43 | 73.30 | 4.21 |
Despite only taking away a point against Liverpool, Arsenal are still the favourites to win the league. Opta gives Mikel Arteta's men a staggering 86.98% chance to claim their first Premier League title in 22 years.
The supercomputer projects the Gunners to have around 85 points come May, a total that would not have been enough to lift the Premier League trophy in eight of the last nine seasons. Still, Arsenal will only care about claiming the ever-illusive piece of silverware, not how their campaign compares to the league’s most recent champions.
According to Opta, Man City have the greatest chance to play spoiler, but the odds are heavily stacked against the Cityzens. After three consecutive draws to start the new year, Pep Guardiola’s side now has just a 8.62% chance of beating out the north London outfit for the English crown.
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Second place is an improvement from last season’s poor campaign from Man City, but their predicted 75 points would only be four more than they tallied in 2024–25, a failure by all accounts considering they spent nearly £180 million in the summer transfer window.
Aston Villa are not far behind in third place, where the supercomputer has the Villains finishing less than two points behind the Cityzens. Opta’s predictions and the Premier League table would have looked much different, though, had Unai Emery’s men not shared points with Crystal Palace on Wednesday.
Champions League Spots
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Champions League Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4. | Liverpool | 35 | 64.40 | 56.97 |
5. | Chelsea | 31 | 57.85 | 13.97 |
6. | Newcastle | 32 | 57.78 | 11.95 |
7. | Brentford | 33 | 57.17 | 9.91 |
8. | Man Utd | 32 | 54.61 | 4.50 |
9. | Brighton | 29 | 54.02 | 4.01 |
10. | Fulham | 31 | 53.11 | 1.97 |
Outside of the title race, a handful of clubs are fighting to finish in the Champions League places. The top five teams in the Premier League will likely secure a spot in UEFA’s premier club competition.
It might not be the title defence Liverpool envisioned at the start of the season, but Opta still has the Reds finishing fourth and qualifying for the Champions League in 2026–27. The defending English champions are currently on a 10-game unbeaten run following their draw with Arsenal.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are in the middle of a five-game winless streak. The Blues fell 2–1 to Fulham after Marc Cucurella saw red in the 22nd minute, plummeting the club down to eighth in the table. The supercomputer still rates Liam Rosenior’s side to finish fifth, but they must stop their dreadful run of form to make the prediction into a reality.
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Newcastle United and Brentford are expected to also have around 57 points come May, leaving Chelsea little room for error. A continued skid could see the Club World Cup champions fall out of the Champions League places and settle for a spot in the Europa League, or worse, a return to the Conference League.
On the outside looking in are Man Utd. The Red Devils have dropped points in their last three matches, hurting their position in both the Premier League standings and Opta’s projections. The supercomputer now gives them just a 4.50% chance of playing in UEFA’s premier club competition next season, a feat former boss Ruben Amorim was reportedly confident in achieving.
Man Utd’s predicted 54 points would only be good enough for an eighth place finish, right above Brighton. The Seagulls impressed at the Etihad on Wednesday, holding Man City to a 1–1 draw to surge into the top half of the projected standings.
Fulham rounds out Opta’s top 10 after their victory over the Blues, knocking Tottenham out of the top half of the table. Thomas Frank, who was caught drinking coffee out of an Arsenal cup, could have to pay for Spurs’ disappointing season with his job should he only lead the club to the supercomputer’s predicted 12th place finish.
Relegation Battle
Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | Leeds | 22 | 41.24 | 7.27 |
17 | Nottingham Forest | 21 | 40.58 | 9.08 |
18 | West Ham | 14 | 30.21 | 89.07 |
19 | Burnley | 13 | 28.02 | 94.08 |
20 | Wolves | 7 | 22.07 | 99.31 |
The bottom five teams in the Premier League standings are all fighting to keep their place in the English top-flight. Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United, Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers are the only clubs Opta handed realistic relegations chances to.
Even though the Whites just suffered a 4–3 defeat to Newcastle, a previous stretch of three draws against Sunderland, Liverpool and Man Utd got Leeds United up to 16th. Daniel Farke’s men are now projected to end 2025–26 with around 41 points, enough to survive another season in the Premier League.
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Nottingham Forest are in a similar position. Coming just one place above the relegation zone is a far cry from their seventh place finish last campaign, but at this point, the Tricky Trees will have to take staying up as a consolation prize to an otherwise poor season.
Unsurprisingly, Opta has the league’s three worst teams dropping to the Championship. With just one win to their name through 21 games, Wolves have a 99.31% chance of relegation. Burnley’s 94.08% is not much better, despite holding the Red Devils to a 2–2 draw on Wednesday.
The two bottom clubs are no strangers to relegation and promotion over the last decade. West Ham, though, have enjoyed 14 consecutive seasons in the Premier League after they were promoted in May 2012. Yet the Hammers’ predicted 30 points will send them to the Championship for the first time since 2010–11 unless a miracle turnaround happens at London Stadium.
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Amanda Langell is a Sports Illustrated FC freelance writer and editor. Born and raised in New York City, her first loves were the Yankees, the Rangers and Broadway before Real Madrid took over her life. Had it not been for her brother’s obsession with Cristiano Ronaldo, she would have never lived through so many magical Champions League nights 3,600 miles away from the Bernabéu. When she’s not consumed by Spanish and European soccer, she’s traveling, reading or losing her voice at a concert.