Super Bowl LIV is almost upon us as San Francisco and Kansas City clash at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 2, 2020, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. Growing every year, Las Vegas betting boards are loaded with thousands of unique prop options. Here we preview and predict best bets that are focused on scoring. Subject to change, odds below are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
William Perry Begins Super Bowl Prop Betting Frenzy
First introduced as a gimmick by bookmaking legend Art Manteris, Super Bowl proposition betting has exploded in popularity. Then at Caesars Palace, Manteris posted a YES or NO prop on Chicago Bears 350-pound defensive tackle William “Refrigerator” Perry scoring a touchdown versus New England during Super Bowl XX. Perry, who scored three touchdowns during the 1985 regular season, opened as a 20/1 longshot to score a TD during Super Bowl 20.
With loads of cash being wagered on YES, the very first Super Bowl novelty prop quickly fell to 2/1 odds. When Perry barreled into the end zone from one yard out late in the third quarter, Caesars Palace paid out a ton of dough to YES bettors. Worried about his job, Manteris was relived when his bosses weren’t concerned about the loss. That’s due to the hit being worth the free publicity received from massive media coverage. Plus, a new wagering market was born.
Shortest Super Bowl LIV Touchdown 1.5 Yards OV +140 UN -160
Perry’s 1-yard plunge leads into our first offensive prop wager. As it always is, the line on the shortest touchdown is set at 1.5 yards with UNDER (-160) being the favorite. During 32 of the first 53 NFL title games, a 1-yard touchdown has been scored 48 times. Of the short scores, 38 were rushing touchdowns, seven were via the pass, two were special team scores and one was scored by the defense. A 1-yard touchdown has been scored in five of the last seven Super Bowls.
Further to that, a 1-yard TD has been scored in nine of the past 14 NFL Championship games. There were a whopping 11 1-yard TD scores during the first 10 playoff games this year. Overall this season, there were 13 short scores in Chiefs’ contests and 14 in 49ers’ games. A scenario that often helps this prop bet cash is pass interference calls in the end zone, as they set teams up with first-and-goal at the 1-yard line. Bet on the shortest TD being less than 1.5 yards.
Prop Pick: Shortest Touchdown UNDER 1.5 yards
Longest Super Bowl LIV Touchdown 47.5 Yards OV -110 UN -110
Bookmakers have posted the longest touchdown of Super Bowl 54 at 47.5 yards. Explosive on offense, the Chiefs scored nine touchdowns of at least 47.5 yards this season. Damien Williams had 84 and 91 yard rushing touchdowns while Mecole Hardman (48, 63, 83) Sammy Watkins (49, 60, 68) and Tyreek Hill (57) caught long TD passes. Hardman also had a 104-yard kickoff return and Bashaud Breeland posted a 100-yard fumble return on defense.
As one would expect from a team that loves to run the rock, San Francisco scored just four touchdowns that were longer than 47.5 yards. Emmanuel Sanders (75) and George Kittle (61) caught long TD passes while Matt Breida (83) and Tevin Coleman (48) posted long rushing scores. The Chiefs allowed four 48+ yard scores while the 49ers gave up three. During the first 53 Super Bowls, there were 44 scores of at least 48 yards. Bet UNDER on this prop option.
Prop Pick: Longest Touchdown UNDER 47.5 yards
Total Yards All Super Bowl LIV Touchdowns 102.5 OV -110 UN -110
While this prop is somewhat tricky, since bettors need to decide if the game will be high scoring or not, this is a wagering option that can be researched. However, high scoring doesn’t always equate to a high number of total TD yards. Kansas City played in six games that had seven total touchdowns and two of them stayed under 102.5 yards. San Francisco had two six TD games that were under and one of its three eight TD contests remained under as well.
Total yards of all touchdowns went over 102.5 10 times during Kansas City games—including both Chiefs’ playoff contests. Ten games was also the number for San Francisco, though just one of those occurred during the 49ers' last three contests. The seven touchdowns during the NFC Conference Championship barely snuck over the number at 103 total yards. Being as the total TD yards went OVER during 20 of the 36 games these teams played—follow that trend.
Prop Pick: Total Yards All Touchdowns OVER 102.5
First Touchdown Scorer Jersey Number: 26.5 OV -110 UN -110
Another scoring prop which is easy to research is over/under on the jersey number of the player who scores the first touchdown. Being as at least one touchdown has been scored in every Super Bowl, this prop has always paid one way of the other. Comparing the 26.5 O/U odds this year to previous Super Bowl battles, UNDER cashed just 15 times while OVER paid out 38 times. That said, UNDER has been the winning side during five of the last six contests.
Kansas City players that would cash UNDER tickets include Patrick Mahomes, Damien Williams, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. Chiefs’ players that would pay OVER bettors on this prop include Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Deon Yelder and Darwin Thompson.
Players that would pay UNDER for San Francisco include Jimmy Garoppolo, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. Plus, Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon on defense. George Kittle, Raheem Mostert and Kendrick Bourne are 49ers players that would pay OVER bettors.
Prop Pick: First TD Jersey Number UNDER 26.5
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