2020 NFL Draft Prop Bet: When Will Jedrick Wills Be Selected?
Are you ready for this? It's been a long time coming, but the 2020 NFL draft is now just one week away. NFL brass, top team management, plus 58 elite prospects, will be scattered across the country to participate in the virtual draft on April 23-25. While live sports’ betting is limited these days - bookmakers at Bovada are offering a wide variety of NFL draft prop options. This SI gambling feature focuses on the draft position of Alabama offensive tackle Jedrick Wills.
Offensive Linemen NFL Draft History
Often flying under the radar, until they whiff on a block, offensive linemen help turn skill position players into NFL stars on offense. A combination of centers (8), guards (12), and tackles (40) make up the 60 linemen that have been taken in the first round over the last ten drafts. During that time, Kansas City Chiefs' OT Eric Fisher is the only lineman taken first overall. After seven seasons in the trenches - it was nice to see Fisher hoist the Super Bowl LIV trophy.
Over the past decade, 17 linemen were selected in the top ten (14 tackles & three guards). The last two drafts have featured a deep talent pool, as six OL were taken in the first round in 2018 and 2019. Both selected in 2018, only Quenton Nelson (No. 6 to the 49ers) and Mike McGlinchey (No. 9 to the Titans) were top ten picks during the last two drafts. The total number of linemen selected in round one is set at 6.5 at William Hill.
Player Background
When Jedrick Wills gets selected, in the top half of the first round, he will be the sixth Alabama lineman to be picked on Day 1 over the last ten drafts. That's the most of any school as Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin are tied for second with four. In addition to being well trained in Nick Saban's pro-style system, Wills played two full seasons against tough SEC defensive talent. Playing right tackle, Wills was the blindside protector for QB Tua Tagovailoa.
After appearing in 11 games as a freshman, Wills was a sophomore starter and closed his career with 28 straight starts. Wills showed well during the NFL combine with a 5.05 time in the 40-yard dash and 34.5 vertical jump. A projected Day 1 NFL starter, Wills is a rock-solid pass protector who also grades well as a run blocker. In a talent-rich draft pool, Wills is up against Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) and Mekhi Becton (Louisville) in the race to be selected first overall.
Possible Landing Spots
Bettors looking at the UNDER on this prop will hang their hat on Wills being selected at No. 4 by New York or No. 8 by Arizona. In his latest mock draft, SI’s Mark Morales-Smith has the Giants taking Tristan Wirfs as the first offensive lineman off the board. New York needs help at several positions and may look at Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons with the fourth overall pick. SI gambling expert Frankie Taddeo is betting on the Giants taking Simmons with their first pick.
Arizona taking Wills with the eighth pick is enticing. The Cardinals have enjoyed a productive offseason, and adding pass protection for Kyler Murray should be a top priority. Arizona just resigned left tackle D.J. Humphries, and Wills would be a great fit on the other side at right tackle. Cleveland with the No. 10 pick would pay OVER bettors on this prop. If Wills falls out of the top ten, he won't last long as the New York Jets and Tampa Bay both need OL help.
Draft Spot Prediction
Betting on this NFL draft prop option requires ranking the top o-line prospects. The odds have changed since my last update. BetOnline currently has Wirfs (-105) Wills (+230) Becton (+350) and Andrew Thomas (+550) as the favorites to be the first offensive lineman selected. I have Arizona taking Wills eighth in my first mock draft. As I am writing this prop bet preview - the line has moved from 10.5 to 8.5 at Bodog. I really liked UNDER 10.5 on the original total.
That’s a fairly sharp line move and is likely due to heavy amounts being wagered on UNDER when 10.5 was the favorite with (-230) as the juice. The new odds have OVER as the favorite with (-145) juice and UNDER (+105) as the underdog. While I won’t bet the farm, I will take a chance on the Giants or Cardinals taking Wills in the top eight.
The Play: UNDER 8.5 (+105)
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