Week 6 NFL Odds and Best Bets: Picks for Perfect 10 Contest
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Bettors can enter the free Perfect 10 contest at SI Sportsbook each week during the NFL season. The weekly game requires 10 selections against the spread (ATS) for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
The Week 6 contest finds a slate filled with five games listed with point spreads of three points or less. Let’s take a brief look at some of the games and trends on tap for some of the games on Sunday for Week 6!
Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his career. Will the AFC East-leading Bills prove the oddsmakers right for installing Buffalo as the favorite?
Will the Falcons keep their perfect 5-0 ATS record intact at home against Jimmy Garoppolo and the favored 49ers?
After going 1-11 over their last 12 games dating back to last season, the Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule. Can Carolina rise up and upset the Rams as a 10.5-point road underdog under interim head coach Steve Wilks?
These are words I thought I would never type in my lifetime, but Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage (75.2%). Will the Cardinals, who are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games in Seattle, defeat their division rival for the fourth time in the last six meetings?
The Jaguars are 8-1-1 ATS against the Colts over the last 10 meetings. Can Indianapolis avenge a Week 2 Straight Up (SU) and ATS loss to Jacksonville?
So, which games stand out as best bets?
Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help. Let’s see who our team is backing as their best bets for the contest in Week 6.
Michael Fabiano: Jets +7.5
The Jets are playing better football this season, and they’ve had some success ATS (6-3) in Zach Wilson’s last nine starts. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last four road games. The Packers, coming off a bad loss to the other New York team, have covered the number just once in their last seven games. I’ll take the Men in Green with the hook to beat the spread against the other Men in Green (and yellow).
Matt Ehalt: 49ers -5.5
The 49ers are the best team in the NFC West and should handle business against an inferior team. They have an elite defense and are going against a team that won’t throw the ball to its first-round tight end in Kyle Pitts and won’t let first-round receiver Drake London on the field for every passing play The 49ers will run the ball down the Falcons throat and handle Atlanta its first against the spread loss of the year. Back the 49ers to win by at least six points in the A-T-L.
Craig Ellenport: Colts -1.5
As bad as things have been for the Colts, they will be a half-game out of first place in the beleaguered AFC South with a win. Remember when people thought the young Jaguars were ready to take over the division? Well, they looked bad last week in a home loss to the Texans and committed too many turnovers. The Jaguars shocked the world in Week 2 with a 24-0 win over the Colts, and that’s the only reason this line is so small. The Colts are strong at home and Jacksonville is playing its third road game in four weeks. Indy avenges its Week 2 loss.
Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Matt De Lima: Eagles -5.5
The Eagles are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL and it’s reflected in their perfect 5-0 record. They are fifth in both offense and defense DVOA. PFF grades them among the top 11 in 10 of their 13 team grades and first in overall team grade. The Cowboys are no slouch and their pass rush could keep this interesting. But I expect the Eagles to really flex how much better they are than the rest of the NFC in this Sunday night contest.
Jennifer Piacenti: Cowboys +5.5
We got 4.5 points last week versus the reigning Super Bowl champion Rams and the Cowboys won outright. Can they win this one outright? Probably not, but I’m happy to take the points. As good as the Philadelphia defense has been, the Cowboys have arguably been better, allowing only 14.4 points per game (third-lowest in the NFL) and tallying 20 sacks. The Eagles have the edge offensively, but don’t count out Cooper Rush just yet. The undefeated backup quarterback should do enough to keep the Cowboys within a touchdown in a game with the second-lowest implied points total of the week at SI Sportsbook (41.5).
Kyle Wood: Buccaneers -7.5
The last three weeks for Tampa Bay have been shaky: Losses to the Packers and Chiefs and a close call against the Falcons. A trip to Pittsburgh to play one of the NFL’s worst teams could be just what Tom Brady needs to right the ship. The Steelers have lost four straight, including a 38-3 beatdown at the hands of the Bills last week, and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has four turnovers across two appearances. Pittsburgh has one of the worst pass defenses in football and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick might be out Sunday. Bet on the Buccaneers to bounce back with a receiving corps that’s slowly getting healthier.
Frankie Taddeo: Jets +7.5
For my two top selections for the Perfect 10 contest be sure to check out the weekly video attached to this article as Bill Enright and I break it all down!
The Jets are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season and Zach Wilson is 6-3 ATS over his last nine starts. Green Bay needed overtime to squeak by Bailey Zappe and the Patriots at home and then were upset by the Giants across the pond last week as 8.5-point favorites. The Packers have have only covered the spread twice over their last seven games. Let’s grab the hook.
Connor Lamb: Atlanta +5.5
Atlanta remains the only team perfect against the spread this year at 5-0, and I see that trend continuing as its heads home to take on a banged-up San Francisco team that hasn’t played exceptionally well on the road and could be without sack co-leader Nick Bosa. The Falcons will be fired up after the controversial call against the Buccaneers last week prevented them, once again, from seeking revenge against Tom Brady, and the Niners could come out flat as they look ahead to their Week 7 matchup against the Chiefs. The Dirty Birds are a surprisingly disciplined team, committing the second-fewest penalties per game, and Marcus Mariota has been able to score while keeping drives alive with his feet, which will help keep this NFC Clash close enough for a home dog cover!
Bill Enright: Rams -9.5
The defending Super Bowl champions are in a perfect spot in Week 6 for a “get things right” game as the Panthers travel across country for a matchup in Los Angeles. Carolina fired their head coach Matt Rhule and will be without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield. Backup passer Sam Darnold is also out, which leaves PJ Walker, the team’s third-string quarterback, as the starter. Say what you want about the Rams’ pitiful 1-4 record against the spread, the truth is that he Panthers are just as bad against the number. Look for Aaron Donald and company to have a field day against Walker in SoFi Stadium.
Shawn Childs: Steelers +7.5
Quarterback play has been a huge issue for Pittsburgh over the first five weeks (two passing touchdowns - none in the past three games). When adding the loss of T.J Watt to its defense and minimal running room for its running backs (100/394/2 - 3.9 yards per rush), Tom Brady and his 9-3 record against the Steelers looks like the right bet in this matchup. But this is the NFL where anything can happen on any given Sunday. Pittsburgh should play much better at home, and a hefty 7.5 points should be enough for the Steelers to be on the winning side of the betting market. Pittsburgh’s secondary is banged up, but my investment in it comes on the development and better play expected from Kenny Pickett.
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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