Week 11 NFL Odds and Best Bets
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The price of Thanksgiving dinner with all the trimmings has soared at grocery stores around the country.
SI Sportsbook is here to help ease the sticker shock on the cost of cooking the family dinner, as well as load up the bank account ahead of Black Friday!
Earlier this season, two lucky winners won $10,000 playing SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 NFL betting contest! Are you ready to join the list of winners?
Football fans can enter the free Perfect 10 contest at SI Sportsbook every week during the NFL season. The weekly game requires 10 selections against the spread (ATS) for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every contestant who picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
This week’s contest features nine home teams as the betting favorite. Let’s take a brief look at the ten games in the contest and some trends on tap for Sunday!
Bettors have not been able to capitalize on the Eagles’ 4-0 straight-up (SU) start away from Lincoln Financial Field this season as they have failed to cover ATS in three of those contests. Can Philadelphia bounce back from its first loss of the season and cover as 9.5-point road favorites agains the Colts?
Can a Rams team missing star wideout Cooper Kupp upset Alvin Kamara and the Saints? Will the 6-3 Jets finally end a 13-game losing streak to the Patriots that dates back to 2015? Can the Ravens earn their first home ATS (0-3-1 ATS) cash of the season against a Panthers squad that is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road?
So, which games stand out as best bets?
Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help.
Let’s see who our team is backing as their best bets for the contest in Week 11.
Albert Breer: Commanders -2.5
I just think Ron Rivera’s crew has a little something going. And nothing about how Houston has played since its bye would indicate that much.is gonna change here for either team.
Conor Orr: Browns +9.5
Nick Chubb is a bulldozer in bad weather. He’ll probably be able to help the Browns hold onto the ball for long enough to shave down on the Bills’ possession total. The Browns are not a team I’d lobby for under any circumstances, but there will be increased pressure on them to fix their defensive woes before Deshaun Watson returns.
Jimmy Traina: Giants -3.5
I don’t see the Lions winning back-to-back road games here. The Giants will have a massive coaching advantage here and running back Saquon Barkley should run wild against a very weak Lions defense. It’s never a bad thing to bet against Jared Goff outdoors in cold weather, too.
Michael Fabiano: Cowboys -1.5
The Vikings beat the Bills straight-up (SU) on the road last week, while the Cowboys lost to a Packers team that had lost five straight games. So how in the heck is Dallas a road favorite against a team that’s lost one game? Something seems fishy here, and I’m not buying it. Dallas needs to win this game to keep up with the Eagles and Giants in the NFC East, and they’re undefeated in their last four games in Minnesota. The Boys have to keep the penalties to a minimum, but I’ll take them to win straight-up and cover.
Matt Ehalt: Commanders -2.5
The Texans stink. There, I said it. This team is already planning which quarterback it will draft with the first or second pick next year. The Commanders are riding high after its upset over the Eagles and they can definitely beat the Texans by a field goal. There’s the potential for a letdown, but the Texans are so bad that it won’t matter. Washington also shut down the Eagles’ rushing attack and they will cruise to a win if they can repeat that success against Dameon Pierce.
Craig Ellenport: Jets +3.5
Picking games is often all about historical trends. But nothing lasts forever. It only seems as if the Jets will never beat the Patriots again in our lifetime. After all, the Patriots have won 13 straight against their AFC East rivals. New England has won 21 of the last 23 in the series, with the only two losses coming in overtime. Anyway… history, schmistory. The time is now for this streak to end. The Jets already have wins this season vs. the Bills and Dolphins, the two best teams in their division. New England only scored one touchdown in a Week 8 win over the Jets, earning the victory thanks to three turnovers and five Nick Folk field goals. That's been the Jets' only loss since September. The Jets defense has been phenomenal, allowing an average of 13 points in its last three road games. At the very least, the Jets keep this game within a field goal, and they appear ready to take down Bill Belichick and company.
Jennifer Piacenti: Commanders -2.5
The Commanders beat the Eagles last week by running the ball a whopping 49 times. Why wouldn’t they use the same game plan this week against the league’s worst run defense that has allowed 182 rushing yards per game and a league-leading 13 rushing touchdowns? Houston’s offense is averages 16.6 points per game this season and Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson and Curtis Samuel should combine for enough production to cover the 2.5-point spread.
Frank Taddeo: Commanders -2.5
Taylor Heinicke is 3-1 SU since taking over for Carson Wentz, rewarding bettors with a 3-0-1 ATS mark over that span. Houston has lost seven of their last eight games (1-7 SU) and are winless (0-3-1) at home this season. Star defensive end Chase Young returns to the gridiron for the first time since tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 10 against Tampa Bay last season. His return is a massive boost on the defensive side of the ball. In the Perfect 10 contest, this line is only 2.5, but it has steamed up to a 3.5-point in some respected shops out here in Vegas. Take advantage of the short number.
Kyle Wood: Patriots -3.5
Though I’d feel a bit more comfortable with this line on the other side of three points, I’m still confident enough in this New England defense and run game against New York to get the job done—again. The Patriots have had the Jets’ number for years and that was the case when these teams met just a few weeks ago and Zach Wilson tossed three interceptions. Mac Jones doesn’t have to be Tom Brady for his team to get the W; he just needs to hand the ball off to Rhamondre Stevenson and let his defense work for him and the 13-game streak will continue.
Matt De Lima: Colts +9.5
I’m the last guy to defend the hiring of Jeff Saturday as head coach, but I do believe his one point of expertise (coaching and nurturing the offensive line as a former All-Pro center) can be the key to this team’s performance. In a matchup where both teams want to run the ball and control the clock, I believe we’ll see a low-scoring affair that will make it tough for the Eagles to run out a lead and cover this spread. I expect the Colts to keep it close enough and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the game stays under its 43.5 total.
Bill Enright: Broncos -2.5
Does it scare me to voluntarily wager on the Broncos? To risk money on Nathaniel Hackett? To ride with Russell Wilson and Broncos Country? Yes, it’s terrifying. But can’t let fear get in the way of making smart decisions. The Broncos may be bad, but the Raiders are awful. Las Vegas is a putrid 1-3 against the spread on the road and I’m holding out hope Denver was able to “get it together” during its bye week.
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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