Week 18 NFL Odds and Best Bets
Week 18 signifies the final chance to win free money in SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 NFL betting contest for the 2022-23 season! SI Sportsbook has paid out five-figures several times this season and will try to give away more money.
The Perfect 10 contest requires 10 selections against the spread (ATS) for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every contestant who picks at least six games right will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
Sunday’s Perfect 10 contest finds a card listing seven home home teams as betting favorites. Four of the 10 games feature spreads of more than a touchdown and only one game with less than a field goal demand.
Are you ready to join the list of winners in Week 18?
Wagering on NFL games played in the final week of the regular season can often be troublesome for bettors with many clubs resting their starters. Bettors need to be cognizant of which teams are “motivated” to win, as well as which franchises can improve draft positioning by losing a “meaningless” game.
We must highlight that books also know which teams “need” to win and have inflated the lines knowing that bettors will only bet one side of the game. So, be careful blindly backing teams in must-win situations.
Let’s take a brief look at the ten games in the contest and some trends on tap for Sunday!
Can Jalen Hurts and the Eagles beat a Giants squad that may be benching many of its starters and lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
Will Mac Jones and the Patriots upset the Bills and secure the No. 7 playoff seed in the AFC in a win-and-in scenario?
Will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are 4-0 straight-up (SU) and ATS over the last four games, beat the Lions on Sunday night and earn a trip to the playoffs ?
So, which games stand out as best bets? Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help. Let’s see who our team is backing as their best bets for the contest.
Jimmy Traina: Packers -4.5
Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to lose at Lambeau Field with a playoff berth on the line. The Lions beat the Packers earlier this season in Detroit, so Green Bay will be out for revenge. Plus, if the Seahawks beat the Rams earlier in the afternoon this game will be completely meaningless to the Lions.
Frank Taddeo: Vikings -1.5
This game fits many of the Week 18 angles bettors should be looking for prior to making selections in the Perfect 10 contest. Minnesota has now steamed to 7.5-point road favorites in “real-time” wagering following the news that Justin Fields (hip) won’t play against the Vikings. Instead, Chicago will start journeyman Nathan Peterman under center. The Vikings plan to play all their starters versus the Bears, as the club has an outside shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC if the 49ers are upset by the Cardinals. The Vikings, who have won four of the last five meetings against their NFC North rival, will take on a Bears club involved in “tankathon”. If the Texans win and the Bears lose in Week 18, the Bears earn the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. If the Bears lose and the Texans lose, Chicago locks up the No. 2 pick. Let’s simply back the team motivated to win versus the one who has more to gain by losing, while also gaining major line relief.
Michael Fabiano: Lions +4.5
This is a weird week for wagering, as many teams have nothing to play for and could rest their starters. The Lions-Packers game is not one of them, as both teams are playing for a postseason berth. Call me a fan of the “loveable loser,” but I’m rooting for Detroit to win and reach the playoffs. They’re a much better team at home, but this will be a close game and the Lions are 11-5 ATS in 2022.
Bill Enright: Cowboys -5.5
The Cowboys won the NFC East last season but no team has won in back-to-back years since 2004. In order to get the division crown and buck that trend, Dallas needs to beat the Commanders and they need the Eagles to lose to the Giants. The Cowboys and Eagles both play at the same time, so the Dallas needs to play its starters all game. Meanwhile, Commanders rookie quarterback Sam Howell is making his first career start against a Dallas defense which ranks third with 51 sacks. Commanders are 1-4 ATS in the division and 2-5 ATS after a loss. Cowboys win and they win by more than a touchdown. Lay the 5.5.
Matt De Lima: Buccaneers +7.5
Even if the Buccaneers opt to rest or pull some starters early, giving Tom Brady more than a touchdown headstart feels like easy money. Since taking over as the Falcons’ starting quarterback, Desmond Ridder has yet to throw a touchdown pass. He hasn’t played poorly, but there’s a lot to be desired. Take the points and run.
Kyle Wood: Cowboys -5.5
An outside shot at the No. 1 seed is on the line for the Cowboys against the Commanders, who have already been eliminated from the playoffs and will give their rookie quarterback his first snaps. This should be a get-right game for the turnover-happy Dallas defense against a Washington team it beat by 15 points earlier in the year with Cooper Rush under center. With Dak Prescott and the offense rolling, consider yourself lucky to be giving less than a touchdown.
Craig Ellenport: Saints -4.5
It’s always tough betting on the final week of the regular season, especially with teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention and – theoretically – have nothing to play for. The Panthers and Saints were both eliminated last week but they did so in different ways: The Panthers choked and blew a fourth-quarter lead against the Bucs; New Orleans upset the top-seeded Eagles in Philadelphia. The Saints’ defense has been a force in recent weeks, allowing an average of 13.6 points per game over their last five games. Saints co-defensive coordinator Kris Richard may be a head coach candidate when the season ends, so I suspect he will keep his defense motivated to make a statement here.
Matt Ehalt: Vikings -1.5
The Bears have nothing to play for in this game except a shot at the No. 1 pick and are sitting Justin Fields, with Nathan Peterman instead getting the start. The Vikings don’t have much to play for either but can win by two points. Minnesota also needs to play well following last week’s debacle against the Packers.
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