Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Auburn’s Polarizing Bubble Case

Welcome to championship week! It’s perhaps the busiest week of the year in college basketball, an all-out race to lock in spots in the NCAA tournament with Selection Sunday just days away and the process of building the bracket slowly but surely beginning. Throughout the week, Sports Illustrated will have daily and in some cases even more frequent updates with all the latest in projecting the field of 68. Here’s a look at where things stand entering Wednesday.

Previous Bracket Watches: Jan. 21 | Feb. 3 | Feb. 10 | Feb. 17 | Feb. 24 | March 3 | March 6 | March 10

Automatic Bids Decided Wednesday

Southland: No. 1 Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 2 McNeese State, 5 p.m. ET
Patriot League: No. 2 Lehigh vs. No. 4 Boston University, 7 p.m. ET
Big Sky: No. 4 Montana vs. No. 7 Idaho, 11:30 p.m. ET

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

UCF
NC State
Missouri
Santa Clara

Last Four In

Texas
VCU
SMU
Auburn

First Four Out

Indiana
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati

Next Four Out

Oklahoma
San Diego State
Stanford
Seton Hall

In many ways, Tuesday was a day of answered questions on the bubble. Virginia Tech, our first team out on Tuesday morning, losing to Wake Forest all but ensured the Hokies won’t be part of our projected field on Selection Sunday. We can also largely cross out Stanford after yet another bad loss, this time to Pittsburgh.

More bubble teams play Wednesday (details below), but the key detail remains that being in the projected field today in all likelihood won’t be enough to get you in by Sunday once bid stealers are accounted for. There’s a better than 50% chance of stolen bids in at least two conferences (MAC and Mountain West) and potential developments elsewhere that could impact the cut line.

Wednesday’s Bubble Games to Monitor

NC State vs. Pittsburgh, noon ET
SMU vs. Louisville, 2:30 p.m. ET
Auburn vs. Mississippi State, 3 p.m. ET
Cincinnati vs. UCF, 3 p.m. ET
Texas vs. Ole Miss, 7 p.m. ET
Oklahoma vs. South Carolina, 9:30 p.m. ET

The afternoon games at the ACC tournament are essentially win-and-in games. At noon, NC State can likely ensure it finds its way into the Big Dance as long as it beats Pittsburgh. A loss might not fully knock the Pack out, but it’d make the race to Selection Sunday a harrowing one. SMU got a much-needed win over Syracuse on Tuesday to stay in the projected field. A Quad 1 win over Louisville should lock up its spot save for several bid stealers.

At 16–15, Auburn is the most polarizing bubble team at present. For any hope of making the field, the Tigers must beat Mississippi State on Wednesday. Regardless of Auburn’s quality wins, there’s no world where the committee puts a 16–16 team in as an at-large.

Cincinnati and Oklahoma have run underdog bubble campaigns, coming back seemingly from the dead with late-season surges. Both have more work to do though and need wins Wednesday to stay in the mix. A win over UCF would set up the Bearcats for a huge opportunity against Arizona on Thursday … and might send UCF to the First Four in Dayton in the process.

Texas has an odd résumé, with strong predictive metrics and six Quad 1 wins but just a 10–13 overall mark against the top three quadrants and mediocre marks in the WAB, SOR and KPI. The Longhorns would be advised to handle business vs. Ole Miss.

Projected Field

Bold teams have clinched their automatic bid.
* — Projected automatic qualifiers.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 UMBC*/Bethune-Cookman*
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Montana*

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Howard*/Lehigh*
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 South Florida*
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Texas/VCU
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Furman

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 SMU/Auburn
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Saint Louis*
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Siena

South Region

No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Santa Clara
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Bracket Notes

The majority of the changes overnight came with automatic bids. The MAAC’s No. 3 seed, Siena, claimed that league’s automatic bid over Merrimack but slotted in the same as a No. 15 seed, while Montana entered the projected field as the Big Sky’s automatic qualifier after the Grizzlies upset top-seeded Portland State in that league’s semifinals.

Elsewhere, Gonzaga winning the WCC title strengthens the Bulldogs’ case for a spot on the No. 3 line, which is where SI currently projects them landing. It also opens the door for Santa Clara to land in the First Four in Dayton, though SI currently projects them as the last bye to the round of 64.

Outside of bubble action, keep an eye Wednesday on Iowa, Kentucky and Clemson looking to avoid Quad 2 or worse losses early in their conference tournaments. All three sit in the soft middle of the bracket right now.

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