Probable Pitching Matchups Make Astros Clear Favorite in Royals Series

If there is a must-win series for the Astros, it is the one they are playing this weekend.

Jun 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45) prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Daikin Park. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

It is still a month from the All-Star break when teams typically start to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. However, others are starting to fall behind at a pace that makes it impossible for them to catch up.

That could easily happen to the Houston Astros in the next couple of weeks if they don't start to steal some games and a series or two. That being said, this matchup between the Astros and Kansas City Royals has to be a W for Houston, especially with the starting pitching probables.

This series victory has nothing to do with who the Royals are trotting out there, but who the Astros are, as Tatsuya Imai is set to take the opener Friday, followed by Mike Burrows and Spencer Arrighetti, who will wrap things up Sunday afternoon in Missouri.

Astros pitching probables vs Royals:

Today: Tatsuya Imai
Saturday: Mike Burrows
Sunday: Spencer Arrighetti pic.twitter.com/DdUi8hmfER

— SleeperAstros (@SleeperAstros) June 12, 2026

Imai has really turned a corner, while Arrighetti has been phenomenal from his first start. That only leaves Burrows, who is the outlier, as he could easily be optioned when Hunter Brown comes back.

So are the Astros looking for a sweep? Not necessarily. Should they 100% win this series? Yes.

Full Matchup Breakdowns This Weekend

Astros pitcher Spencer Arrighetti (41) throws to the plate against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Offensively, this team has been a menace, led by the unfathomable production that is coming from Yordan Alvarez. That means if Burrow can give them somewhat of a chance to win Saturday, then this could lead to a sweep.

Fri, Jun 12 • 7:10 PM CDT: Tatsuya Imai vs. Luinder Avila
Sat, Jun 13 • 6:10 PM CDT: Mike Burrows vs. Noah Cameron
Sun, Jun 14 • 1:10 PM CDT: Spencer Arrighetti vs. Stephen Kolek

Now, Imai's 5.24 ERA on the season is definitely not great, but not a clear representative of how good he has been recently. He has four earned runs in his last 17 innings. Walks are continuing to be a problem, but he is limiting the damage, and that is what they need him to do.

Unfortunately, Burrows is trending in the opposite direction, as a trip to Sugarland is surely in his future. However, Cameron is the lesser of the evils that the Royals will put on the hill, so Saturday could ultimately just be a good game.

Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows (50) comes off the field after he pitches against the Texas Rangers during the third inning at Globe Life Field. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Sunday's finale is going to be the best pitching battle to watch of this series, meaning the offense has to come up with some big plays. Well, with Alvarez on the team, amongst others, this should be a game added to the win column.

The Astros still sit well below .500, but the time is now to make up some ground before taking on the red-hot Detroit Tigers as well as the Cleveland Guardians.

When a team is sitting in a position like Houston is, they have to capitalize when the best their pitching staff has to offer is on the mound. This might not be a sweep, but Friday and Sunday are must-win games.